2024 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 13th March 2024)

Each day of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival for you!

The 'day two' feature is the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase - a race trainer Willie Mullins has won for the last two seasons and has a strong hand again in 2024 with El Fabiolo, who is unbeaten over fences.

You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2024 below.

Cheltenham Day One Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Two Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Three Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Four Trends 2024

Cheltenham Festival Trends 2024

Wednesday 13th March (Old Course & Cross Country)

1.30 – Gallagher Novices' Hurdle (Reg as the Baring Bingham) (Grade 1) 2m 5f ITV

2023 Winner: IMPAIRE ET PASSE (5/2)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• 17 of the last 19 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 7 of the last 10 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
• 12 of the last 15 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
• 19 of the last 23 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
• 23 of the last 29 winners won last time out
• 28 of the last 29 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• The Irish have won 14 of the last 21 (9 of last 10)
• Horses rated 150+ do well
• 12 of the last 15 winners had won a Graded Novice Hurdle
• 24 of the last 29 winners (including last 12) had won at least one bumper race
• 17 of the last 18 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 10 of the last 13 winners were aged 6
• In the last 12 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 24 of the 36 top 3 places
• 23 of the last 25 were NH bred
• 17 of the last 25 had won a graded race before
• Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (8 of the last 13 had won an Irish Point)
• Respect Willie Mullins – 6 winners in last 16 years (4 of the last 10)
• Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 6 winners
• 5 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (50%)

Negatives….

• Only 2 winners aged older than 6 has won since 1974
• Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
• Horses aged 7 or older are 1 from 60 (since 1988)
• Only two of the last 37 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
• The last 20 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
• Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten. 0 from 30 in the last 18 years)

=================================================

2.10 - Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 3m 80y ITV

2023 Winner: THE REAL WHACKER (8/1)
Trainer – Patrick Neville
Jockey – Sam Twiston-Davies
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

• 5 of the last 15 winners ran in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase
• The last 22 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
• 16 of the last 17 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd in a G1/G2 over fences
• 26 of the last 29 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
• Respect 7 year-olds – won 14 of the last 17 (19 of last 24)
• 12 of the last 18 winners won last time out
• 7 of the last 14 winners were beaten on their chase debut
• 8 of the last 16 winners had won a bumper before
• 8 of the last 17 favourites won
• The last 9 winners were rated 150+
• 11 of the last 12 winners returned single-figures in the betting
• 21 of the last 23 winners had run between 3-5 times over fences
• Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
• Irish bred horses are 22 from the last 27
• 12 of the last 17 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
• 7 of the last 15 winners were trained in Ireland
• Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins (5 wins) and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race (11 of the last 20 between them)
• 26 of the last 31 were novice hurdling last season
• 6 of the last 14 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
• Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (55 of the last 57 winners had)
• 12 of the last 17 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year
• 8 of the last 9 winners came from the top 3 in the betting market
• 5 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (50%)

Negatives….

• No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
• Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
• Avoid horses that had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
• Just 3 of the last 24 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
• No winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26^th Dec) have won gone onto win this race
• French bred horses are 1-from-43 (last 17 years, but the 2022 winner L’Homme Presse was a French-bred)
• The Tizzard yard are 0-from-10 over the last 12 years
• Avoid unbeaten horses (only 3 of the last 24 winners)
• Mares are currently 0-from-12 in the race
• Horses in headgear have a poor record

=================================================

    2.40 - Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 5f ITV

 

2023 Winner: LANGER DAN (9/1)
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Harry Skelton
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

• 12 of the last 19 were 2^nd season hurdlers
• 18 of the last 23 winners raced less than 10 times over hurdles
• 11 of the last 14 winners had run at the Festival before (9 had top 4 finish)
• 10 of the last 14 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
• 10 of the last 15 winners were rated in the 140’s
• 15 of the last 24 winners aged 6 or 7
• 10 of the last 14 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• 13 of the last 18 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
• 21 of the last 29 winners won earlier that season
• Respect JP McManus-owned runners
• Respect trainers Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (7 wins in last 14 years)
• 10 of the last 22 winners were French-Bred
• 15 of the last 30 won last time out
• Respect Irish-trained runners (7 of the last 15)
• Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (13 of last 15 winners)
• 16 of the last 19 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
• Trainer Gordon Elliott was won 3 of the last 13 runnings
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has won 3 of the last 10 (4 in total)
• 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)
• 4 of the last 5 winners wore headgear

Negatives….

• Just one winning favourite in the last 20 years (2020)
• Only 5 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
• Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 309 to even place since 1999
• Just 5 winners since 2000 aged 8+
• Horses rated 150+ don’t have an overall great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151 and 2020 winner was 152
• Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 and had the second in 2019, but overall has a bad record – 50 runners – just two placed inside the top 2 (1 from 47 since 2010
• 1 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (10%)

=================================================

    3.30 - Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 99y ITV

2023 Winner: ENERGUMENE (6/5 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

• 13 of the last 23 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
• 4 of the last 11 winners won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
• 25 of the last 39 had won at the Festival before
• Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 11 of the last 24 between them
• Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 12
• 29 of the last 37 winners aged between 7-9
• 14 of the last 22 winners won last time out
• 14 of the last 18 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
• 18 of the last 21 winners had run that calendar year
• 40 of the last 42 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
• 17 of the last 24 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
• 9 of the last 17 winners were French-bred
• 12 of the last 21 winners were second season chasers
• 16 of the last 18 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
• 21 of the last 25 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• 17 of the last 24 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
• 7 of the last 13 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
• Past champions do well – 14 horses have won the CC more than once
• 4 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (40%)

Negatives….

• Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 40 years
• Just 1 winner in last 19 had run 4+ times that season
• Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year have a bad record
• Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, has just 2 wins in the race (Energumene 2022 & 2023)
• Just 1 of the last 22 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
• Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
• Dublin Chase winners are currently 0-from-4
• Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 49 years
• Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 45 years
• 5 of the last 7 odds-on favourites have lost
• Just one Mare has ever won the race (Put The Kettle On, 2021)

=================================================

    4.10 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 6f 37y ITV

 

2023 Winner: DELTA WORK (11/10 fav)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Keith Donoghue
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• The Irish have won 16 of the last 19 runnings
• Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
• 16 of the last 19 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
• 22 of the last 26 winners came from the top three in the betting
• 10 of the last 19 ran in the December Cross Country race at Cheltenham
• 15 of the last 19 winners had run on the course before
• Respect jockey Keith Donoghue (4 wins)
• 15 or the last 19 winners were aged 10 or younger
• 8 of the last 13 winners were aged 8 or 9
• Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 13 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 5 of the last 7 runnings
• 7 winners since 2005 owned by JP McManus
• 10 of the last 19 winners had run in the NH Chase before
• 6 of the last 9 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House
• The last 8 winners wore headgear
• 9 of the last 11 winners wore a tongue-tie

Negatives….

• Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record, but the 2022 winner Delta Work was running for the first time over the X-Country course
• Just 3 of the last 14 winners won their last race
• Horses aged 7 or younger are only 3 from 101, but the 2020 winner was aged 6
• Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 17
• Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13
• 3 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (30%)

=================================================

    4.50 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 62y ITV

2023 Winner: MASKADA (22/1)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Darragh O’Keeffe
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• 8 of the last 10 winners carried 11st or more
• 16 of the last 20 winners had run at the Festival before
• 8 of the last 20 winners ran in the previous renewal
• Irish have won 5 of the last 11 runnings
• 10 of the last 14 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
• 11 of the last 15 winners novices or second season chasers
• 12 of the last 18 winners aged between 6-8
• 13 of the last 20 winners were aged 8 or older
• Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
• Paul Nicholls has won 4 of the last 20
• Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 12 placed)
• 12 of the last 13 winners were rated at least 138
• 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
• Novices have won 6 of the last 15 runnings
• 5 of the last 9 winners won after a 91+ day break
• 10 of the last 13 winners were rated between 138-147
• 11 of the last 13 winners rated between 138-150
• 8 of the last 10 winners carried 11st or more in weight
• 21 of the last 24 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences

Negatives….

• Horses aged 10+ are just 3 wins from the last 28 runnings, but the 2022 winner was a 10 year-old
• Last time out winners are just 1 from last 17
• Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 35 since 2005
• Only 2 of the last 19 winners were favourites
• Just 2 winners since 2000 had run in more than 12 chases
• Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record
• 1 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (10%)

=================================================

    5.30 - Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1) 2m 87y RTV

 

2023 Winner: A DREAM TO SHARE (7/2)
Trainer – John E Kiely
Jockey – Mr JL Gleeson
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• 29 of the last 31 had won last time out (all of last 19)
• 24 of the last 31 winners trained in Ireland
• Respect Irish-trained runners (24 from 40)
• 22 of the last 31 came from the top 6 in the betting
• 24 of the last 31 were Irish-bred
• 12 of the last 23 winners were second season horses
• 17 of the last 18 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 20 of the last 31 winners aged 5 years-old
• 20 of the last 22 had their debut runs in Ireland
• 12 of the last 21 had been beaten in a race before
• 6 of the last 14 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
• Respect Willie Mullins (12 winners) – also had first three in 2018 and first and second in 2020 and 2021
• The Irish lead the British 25-7 in the race history
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 7 runnings
• 12 of the last 21 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• Mares are 3-21 in the last 19 runnings
• 7 of the last 8 winners had run in February
• 3 of the last 5 winners owned by Cheveley Park Stud

Negatives….

• Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
• Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
• Just 2 of the last 13 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
• Only 4 of the last 13 winners were won by UK-based trainers
• 4 year-olds are 1 from 67 since 2000 (Cue Card)
• Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race
• 3 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (30%)

================================================

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM

GET THE BEST DAILY TRAINER INFO FROM 17 TOP STABLES - Sent direct to your in-box!

**SPECIAL OFFER** TRY US FOR JUST £1.99!!

FIND OUT MORE HERE

==================================================

 

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• 2024 Becher Chase Trends
• 2024 Tingle Creek Chase Trends
• 2024 Peterborough Chase Trends
• 2025 Cotswold Chase Trends
• 2025 Clarence House Betting Trends