As we prepare to turn the calendar from July to August, so the 2024 Qatar 'Glorious' Goodwood Festival heaves into view on the rolling Sussex Downs. To emerge victorious from a festival meeting contested on such a quintessentially quirky configuration requires more than a 'mere' understanding of the form. Preparations for those serious about the week will start with an awareness of the layout of the circuit and the implications on race shape.
Draw is rarely as simple - and occasionally not as complicated - as the pundits will tell you in their one line summaries. Let's review the course.
These are Goodwood's helter-skelter pistes:
If you're confused, you'll not be alone. There is a tight right-hand loop, and a straight of a little shy of half a mile from which point the run in is pretty much all downhill - having been largely uphill to the turn.
Goodwood is normally a front-runner's track for a couple of reasons. Firstly, when horses get to the turn into the straight, they tend to fan wide, giving up ground, just at the moment the pacemaking railer is stealing a length or two. Secondly, horses held up for a later run often get caught in a pocket, with the far rail of the home straight cambering away from the grandstands. That said, a cutaway has been introduced more recently to try to offer patiently ridden runners an outlet close to the far rail and this has made life fairer for all that the clearest passage is usually in front or wide.
So that's the complicated layout of the track. Now what of the weather? The going is currently good, good to soft in places after plenty of rain in the lead up the meeting; but with two warm dry days before the gates open on day one, it's reasonable to work on the basis of good, perhaps even good to firm in places. The forecast for later in the week is less clear cut and the latest going and weather station news can be found here.
Goodwood 5f and 6f Draw / Run Style Bias
The five and six furlong races at Goodwood are run on a straight track. As regular readers will know, using the Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) metric can be a lot more instructive than simple win and place percentages, especially when the sample sizes are smaller. PRB gives a score to every runner in every race, with the exception of last placed finishers who beat 0% of their rivals. Here's how the PRB draw / run style heat map looks for Goodwood straight track sprints on soft or heavy ground in fields of 7-11 runners:
Pretty fair, though held up high draws (and similarly patiently ridden middle draws) are at a disadvantage.
In handicap fields of 12+ runners on good or faster ground, the heat map looks like this:
That implies a similar story, with low and/or a front-running style having had the best of it since 2009. In the last couple of years, however, high numbers have performed better and that's something to keep an eye on.
Goodwood 7f Draw / Run Style Bias
As we move onto the round course and races of seven furlongs or a mile, things get a lot more clear cut. Let's start by looking at 7f handicaps on good or quicker, 12+ runners. Here's the table showing wins, places and PRB amongst other things specifically for fast ground 7f handicaps since 2009:
Low is strongly favoured with high at a notable disadvantage regardless of your preferred metric. Breaking that down further, the PRB3* graph and draw/run style heat map are just as unequivocal:
*PRB3 takes the average percentage of rivals beaten of a stall and its immediate neighbours and is a sensible way of 'smoothing the curve' of draw charts
Low is definitely the best place to be, followed by a pace presser / forward goer from a middle draw. High draws have found it very tough regardless of run style on fast ground over seven furlongs.
Goodwood 1 Mile Draw / Run Style Bias
Looking at mile handicaps through the same field size/going prism reveals a similar, though slightly weaker, profile:
It is still tough to win from out wide, but middle draws have been somewhat competitive against those posted inside them at the get go.
The Golden Mile itself typically has a strong low draw bias - indeed, it's one of the strongest draw bias races in the calendar, with just two winners exiting a stall higher than ten from the rail since 2009 when our database starts:
One of that pair of wide drawn winners was Johan last year, drawn 18, when the going was soft. The year before, in 2022, stall 2 beat stall 1 (£173.50 exacta).
Summary: Goodwood Draw and Run Style Bias on Good or Quicker Ground
At sprint trips on the straight track, it has usually been a disadvantage to be on the lead and/or drawn low to middle.
Over seven furlongs and a mile, low is mainly where it's at, particularly over seven furlongs and in the huge field Goodwood Mile handicap.
Stay lucky!
Matt
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A good reading
Thanks
Good info on the 9f races, surely the last 31/2f are level though
Hi Matt, How does Goodwood suit Jamie Spencer’s style of riding?
David
Hi David
Spencer doesn’t have to ride from the back, though I assume this is what you meant.
No jockey has a dominant performance at Goodwood in bigger field handicaps. And riding hold up style generally is unsuited in the main to the track.
RS Runs Wins Places Win % EW % Win PL EW PL ROI A/E IV
Heldup 445 16 69 3.6 15.51 -298.5 -436.75 -67.08 0.51 0.6
MidDiv 422 22 83 5.21 19.67 -178.67 -261.46 -42.34 0.7 0.87
Prom 301 26 77 8.64 25.58 5 5.75 1.66 1.1 1.44
Led 106 14 40 13.21 37.74 114.13 181.16 107.67 1.59 2.21
Matt
Thanks very much, Matt, for the data trawl.
David
Hi Matt,
This article seems to have overwritten the older ‘Draw Biases at Galway and Goodowood’ article. Is that still available anywhere or will the Galway info also be updated this year? I only ask as I’m going to Galway!! Cheers Lee
Hi Lee, was planning to create a Galway specific piece but running out of time to do that :-/
Matt
Cheers Matt, looks like you managed it, great stuff.
Not that it’s especially useful on wet turf, but yes, I did have a look!
Matt
Hi Matt
An enjoyable read as usual.
Trying to find winners with that info should make it easier.
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