2025 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 14th March 2025)

Each day of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival for you!

Onto 'DAY FOUR' and it's Gold Cup Day - did you know? All of the last 22 Gold Cup winners were aged 9 or younger. Can Galopin Des Champs, who has won the last two Gold Cups, become the first three-time winner of the race since Best Mate?

You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2024 below.

Cheltenham Day One Trends 2025
Cheltenham Day Two Trends 2025
Cheltenham Day Three Trends 2025
Cheltenham Day Four Trends 2025

Friday 14th March 2025 (New Course)

Cheltenham Festival Trends 2025

1:20 - JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 179y ITV

2024 Winner: MAJBOROUGH (6/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Mark Walsh
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses…..

•    24 of the last 31 winners won last time out
•    9 of the last 16 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
•    Irish have won 9 of the last 12 runnings
•    French-breds have filled 15 of the last 24 places (last 10 runnings)
•    15 of the last 20 came from the top 4 in the betting
•    14 of the last 17 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
•    Respect Nicky Henderson (7 winners), Willie Mullins (5 winners), Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Alan King-trained runners
•    The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide (2022 winner Vauban won that race and 2023 winner Lossiemouth was runner-up in it, 2024 winner Majborough was 3rd in it)
•    10 of the last 14 winners ran in the Finesse, Adonis or Spring Juvenile Hurdles (8 of the last 13) last time
•    10 of the last 13 winners had raced by Christmas time
•    8 of the last 10 winners began their careers in France
•    Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
•    Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 3 seconds in the last 11 years
•    Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 5 runnings (2 with Rich Ricci-owned horses)

Negatives….

•    Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
•    Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
•    Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
•    Just 2 of the last 20 winner returned bigger than 12/1
•    Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 16
•    Last 8 Adonis Hurdles winners (to have run in the race) have all lost (all unplaced too)

2:00 – County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 179y ITV

2024 Winner: ABSURDE (12/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

•    The Irish have won 12 of the last 18 runnings
•    9 of the last 10 winners were trained by Willie Mullins (5) or Dan Skelton (4)
•    Willie Mullins has won 7 of the last 15 runnings
•    19 of the last 24 winners were novices or second season hurdlers
•    15 of the last 19 winners were rated in the 130’s
•    9 of the last 17 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
•    8 of the last 16 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
•    14 of the last 19 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
•    12 of the last 26 winners aged 5
•    7 of the last 11 winners had run at Cheltenham before
•    12 of the last 18 winners Irish-trained
•    10 of the last 17 winners started their careers in France
•    15 of the last 19 winners were priced in double-figures
•    14 of the last 21 winners began their careers on the flat
•    Look for Mullins, Skelton, AJ Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
•    Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
•    10 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
•    12 of the last 24 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
•    13 of the last 18 winners DIDN’T win last time out
•    5 of the last 9 winners hadn’t raced in the last 72 days
•    Paul Nicholls is 4 from 33 (+14pts)
•    Willie Mullins is 5 from 57 (+43.25pts)
•    Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 4 of the last 9 winners
•    No back to back winner of the race ever since first run in 1920

Negatives….

•    Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
•    Only 2 winners since 2000 winning with a mark of 150+
•    Gordon Elliott has a poor record (0-from-25) since 2011
•    Nicky Henderson has a poor record (0-36) this century
•    Horses aged 9+ are 0-from 39 in last 17 runnings
•    Since 1960 only 5 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
•    Since 1961, only 10 winners had run at the Festival before
•    Since 2005, just 2 winners rated 146 this season
•    Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
•    Avoid horses making their handicap debuts, although last 3 winners have defied this stat
•    Just 2 winning outright favourites in last 23
•    Just 3 of the last 17 winners returned a single-figure price

2:40 - Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase 2m 4f 127yds ITV

2024 Winner: LIMERICK LACE (3/1)
Trainer – Gavin Cromwell
Jockey – Keith Donoghue
UK/Irish: Irish

•    Only 4 previous runnings
•    Willie Mullins trained 2 winners
•    Willie Mullins has a good record in ‘mares’ only’ races at the Festival
•    All 4 winners have been 2nd favourite
•    All 4 winners won last time out
•    3 of the 4 winners rated 150+
•    3 of the 4 winners owned by JP McManus
•    All 4 winners aged 7-8
•    3 of the 4 winners had run well at the Cheltenham Festival before
•  All Irish trained winners
•  No winning favourites

3:20 - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV

2024 Winner: STELLAR STORY (33/1)
Trainer – Gordan Elliott
Jockey – Sam Ewing
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

•    10 of the last 20 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
•    17 of the last 20 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
•    7 of the last 20 winners won the Hyde or Bristol Classic that season
•    17 of the last 20 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
•    9 of the last 13 winners had won a Point
•    8 of the last 11 winners trained in Ireland
•    10 of the last 16 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
•    10 of the last 14 winners had won or been placed in a bumper
•    9 of the last 20 came from the top 5 in the betting
•    10 of the last 20 winners ran 47 days (or more) ago
•    16 of the last 20 had run in a race over 3m
•    17 of the last 19 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
•    15 of the last 20 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out
•    17 of the last 20 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
•    13 of the last 20 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
•    16 of the last 19 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
•    4 of the last 19 favourites won
•    Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins, from 2 runners!)
•    Trainer Willie Mullins has won 3 of the last 8 runnings

Negatives….

•    Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
•    Challow Hurdle winners have poor Festival record
•    Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
•    Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
•    No winning fav in the last 10
•    Gordon Elliott is 1-from-14
•    Be wary of ex flat horses (1 from 20)
•    Nicky Henderson is 0-from-14 in the last 12 years
•    5 year-olds have a poor record (1 from 120)
•    Only 4 of the last 19 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year

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4:00 - Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1) 3m 2f 70y ITV

2024 Winner: GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (10/11 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

•    20 of the last 25 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
•    21 of the last 24 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
•    20 of the last 25 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
•    12 of the last 19 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
•    24 of the last 25 winners were Grade 1 winners
•    Every winner since 2000 only had one season hurdling
•    20 of the last 24 had won or placed at the Festival before
•    20 of the last 24 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
•    22 of the last 25 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
•    15 of the last 17 winners ran 3 or less times that season
•    17 of the last 28 winners were bred in Ireland
•    18 of the last 24 winners won last time out
•    12 of the last 22 winners were favourites (55%)
•    14 of the last 20 winners yet to win beyond 3m 1/2f
•    ALL of the last 25 winners were aged 9 or younger
•    24 of the last 25 winners aged between 7-9 years-old
•    22 of the last 25 winners were in their first three seasons over fences
•    Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record
•    5 of the last 14 winners ran in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase the previous season
•    Trainer Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend have won 4 of the last 6 runnings
•    Willie Mullins and Henry De Bromhead have won the last 6 between them

Negatives….

•    Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
•    No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 77)
•    Just one winning 6 year-old since 1964
•    Just one past winner for Gordon Elliott (Don Cossack)
•    Horses rated 166 or less are only 6 from last 52
•    Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
•    Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
•    Only 3 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
•    Just 2 of the last 17 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
•    Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well
•    Only 2 winners since 2000 had previously been beaten in the race
•    No winner since 2000 ran in that season’s Cotswold Chase

4:40 - St James's Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase 3m 2f 70y ITV

2024 Winner: SINE NOMINE (8/1)
Trainer – Fiona Needham
Jockey – Mr J Dawson
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses…..

•    30 of the last 34 winners were aged under 11 years-old
•    28 of the last 39 won last time out
•    9 of the last 10 winners aged 10 or 11
•    20 of the last 22 winners Irish or French bred
•    The last 18 winners were yet to win over this trip (rules)
•    8 of the last 15 winners finished in the top 5 in the race last year
•    10 of the last 16 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
•    32 of the last 36 started out in point-to-point races
•    15 of the last 19 winners ran 34 days or less ago
•    Respect the Irish runners (won 9 of last 14)
•    14 of the last 19 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
•    10 of the last 16 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
•    15 of the last 17 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
•    11 of the last 15 winners rated 134 or higher (7 of last 12, rated 138+)
•    3 back-to-back winners in the last 13
•    Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times (winning most trainer)

Negatives….

•    Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
•    Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
•    Just 2 winners in the last 48 years aged 12 or older
•    30 of the last 39 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
•    Just one 6 year-old winner in the last 37 runnings
•    Only 2 winners aged 7 since 2000
•    Gordon Elliott has never won this race
•    Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
•    Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
•    British bred horses are 1-90 (last 22 runnings) (Sine Nomine, 2024)
•    Just 2 winners since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
•    Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 271 since 1990
•    Just 4 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out

5:20 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (0-145) 2m 4f 56y RTV

2024 Winner: BETTER DAYS AHEAD (5/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Danny Gilligan
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

•    14 of the last 16 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
•    12 of the last 14 winners placed in the top 3 last time
•    All of the last 16 winners carried 11-1 or more
•    3 of the last 7 winners had top-weight
•    All 16 winners aged 7 or younger
•    10 or the last 13 winners rated 138+
•    14 of the last 16 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
•    7 of the last 11 winners were Irish-based Novices
•    Irish have won 9 of the last 14 (7 making handicap debuts)
•    38 of the 40 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
•    Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
•    13 of the 16 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
•    8 of the 16 winners won last time out
•    7 of the last 11 winners had run over a longer trip that season
•    9 of the 16 winners were rated 133-139
•    9 of the 16 winners returned at a double-figure price (12 of the last 16 were 16/1 or less)
•    5 and 6 year-old have won 14 of last 16 runnings
•    Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
•    Willie Mullins is 4 from 27 runners in the race (won 4 of the last 14 runnings)
•    Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
•    Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 12 years
•    Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 8 runnings
•    Trainer Joseph O’Brien has won 2 of the last 6
•    Nicholls, Elliott, Mullins and O’Brien have won 10 of the last 12 between them

Negatives….

•    Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 23, inc 3 favs)
•    Horses aged 8+ are 0-from 71
•    Just 1 winning fav in the 16-year history (9-14 returned in double-figures)
•    Horses in headgear are currently 1 from 85
•    Only 4 winners have previous Festival experience
•    Horses with 11st or less are currently 0-from-107

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Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Sat TV Trends: 15th March 2025
• 2025 Midlands Grand National Trends
• 2025 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 13th March 2025)
• 2025 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 11th March 2025)
• 2025 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 12th March 2025)