2025 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 11th March 2025)
Each day of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.
We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival for you!
The 'day one' feature is the Grade One Unibet Champion Hurdle - a race in which 35 of the last 41 winners won last time out. While the Irish or Nicky Henderson have won 22 of the last 26 renewals between them.
You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2025 below.
Cheltenham Day One Trends 2025
Cheltenham Day Two Trends 2025
Cheltenham Day Three Trends 2025
Cheltenham Day Four Trends 2025
Cheltenham Festival Trends 2025
Tuesday 11th March 2024 (Old Course)
1:20 - Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV
2024 Winner: Slade Steel
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses…..
• 24 of the last 28 winners won their last race
• 14 of the last 21 winners had raced in at least 4 hurdles races before
• 13 of the last 15 winners came from the first 4 in the market
• 12 of the last 13 winners had won a graded Novice Hurdle before
• 22 of the last 30 winners ran in the last 45 days
• Irish-trained horses have won 19 of the last 33 runnings
• 5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 18 of the last 20 runnings
• Willie Mullins has won the race 7 times in total and for 5 of the last 12 years
• 8 of the last 12 winners were either (5) Mullins or (3) Henderson-trained
• 27 of the last 30 winners had raced that same calendar year
• Owner Rich Ricci & trainer Willie Mullins have won 3 of the last 12 runnings
• 6 of the last 11 winners had been rated 153 or more
• 11 of the last 12 winners returned a single-figure price
• 11 of the last 16 winners were previous bumper winners
• Willie Mullins has won the race 7 times
• Nicky Henderson has won the race 5 times
Negatives…..
• Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 4 from the last 28. In other words, look for horses that won last time out!
• Since 1992 all horses (40) wearing head-gear have been beaten
• We’ve seen just two ex-flat horses win since 2008
• Just 4 of the last 22 winners came here unbeaten
• Just 1 of the last 22 winners aged 7 or older
• Just 2 outright winning favourites in the last 20 runnings
• 4 year-olds are 0-15 since 2000
• Betfair Hurdle winners are 0-from-8 in the last decade
2.00 – Arkle Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 199y ITV
2024 Winner: GAELIC WARRIOR (2/1 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 15 of the last 20 winners had won (or been placed) at Cheltenham before
• 19 of the last 25 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase before
• 14 of the last 15 winners won last time out (plus 18 of the last 23)
• 23 of the last 25 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
• 15 of the last 19 winners had won at least twice over fences before
• 16 of the last 18 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• 16 of the last 22 winners had run 3 or 4 times over fences
• 15 of the last 21 winners had run at the previous year’s Cheltenham Festival
• 9 of the last 13 winners were unbeaten over fences
• Nicky Henderson has won the race 7 times
• Willie Mullins has won 6 of the last 10 runnings (all French-bred)
• 10 of the last 13 winners trained by Willie Mullins (6) or Nicky Henderson (4)
• 10 of the last 13 favourites have won
Negatives…..
• Only 3 of the last 38 winners failed to win or finish second last time out
• Just 3 of the last 34 winners started 11/1 or bigger in the betting
• Only 4 of the last 33 winners were older than 7 years-old
• The last horse aged 9 (or older) to win was in 1988
• Ex-flat horses have a poor record
• Only 2 winners since 2000 won with headgear
• 5 year-olds are 0-16 in the last 14 years
• Shishkin (2021), Douvan (2016) and Altior (2017) were the first Supreme Hurdle winners (previous season) that have followed-up in this race since 1965
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has had 12 unplaced from his last 13 runners
2.40 - Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f ITV
2024 Winner: CHIANTI CLASSICO
Trainer – Kim Bailey
Jockey – David Bass
UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• 19 of the last 25 winners were officially rated 143 or less
• 17 of the last 24 came from the top 4 in the betting
• 20 of the last 24 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
• 18 of the last 24 were novices or second season chasers
• 10 of the last 17 winners were rated between 142-146 (8 between 142-145)
• Horses rated 140+ have won 16 of the last 24 runnings
• 9 of the last 22 won last time out
• Horses that have run well in the race before have a good record
• 10 of the last 13 winners wore headgear
• 10 of the last 15 winners had run at Cheltenham that season
• Jonjo O’Neill, Lucinda Russell, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe are trainers to note
• All winners since 2000 had won over 3m+ before
• 5 of the last 10 winners ran at Cheltenham’s January meeting
• 5 of the last 11 winners ran in the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy) that season
• 13 of the last 16 winners had run at the Festival before
• Northern-based runners have a good record
Negatives….
• Be a bit wary of horses carrying 11-04 or more in weight – 12 of the last 20 carried 10-12 or less, although the 2017 winner carried 11-12 & the 2019 winner won with 11-8 and Chianti Classico in 2024 carried 11st 4bs)
• Horses aged 11 or older are just 3 from 58 to even get placed
• Be wary of Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s currently 0 from 25
• Only 3 winners in the last 16 hadn’t raced at a previous Festival
• Only 5 winners since 2000 have returned bigger than 11/1
• The Irish have won just 2 of the last 56 runnings (since 1967)
• Irish-trained runners are 0-46 in the last 18 runnings
• Willie Mullins has never won this race
3:20 - Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 3f 200y ITV
2024 Winner: LOSSIEMOUTH
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• Follow Irish-trained mares (14 of last 17)
• The favourite (or 2nd fav) have won 13 of the last 17 runnings
• 10 of the last 17 favourites have won
• 13 of the last 17 winners aged between 5-7 years-old
• 15 of the last 17 winners had won over at least 2m4f
• Willie Mullins has trained 10 of the last 17 winners
• Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
• Novices generally do well
• 12 of the last 17 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
• 6 of the last 13 winners had won over 2m6f+ before
• Horses that began their careers in bumpers have done well
• Respect French-bred mares – won 10 renewals
• 13 of the last 17 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
• 14 of the last 17 winners had won (or placed) in a graded race against the males
Negatives….
• Avoid front-runners
• British-bred mares are currently 3-90
• Just2 outright favourites in the last 10 runnings
• Just one winner from last 33 runners to wear headgear have won
• Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners
• Benie De Deaux is the only ex-flat horse to win the race
• Just 2 winners aged 8+ (Quevega & Honeysuckle)
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4:00 - Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV
2024 Winner: STATE MAN (1st 2/5 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 35 of the last 41 won last time out
• 10 of the last 15 winners had run no more than 10 times over hurdles
• Horses unbeaten that season often do well (12 of last 14)
• The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 22 of the last 26 runnings between them
• 11 of the last 16 winners came from the Henderson or Willie Mullins yards
• The Irish have won 16 of the last 26 runnings
• Owner JP McManus has won 6 of the last 15 (9 in total)
• Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 13 runnings (5 in total)
• 29 of the last 35 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (12 of last 17)
• 16 of the last 26 winners had won at the Festival before
• 27 of the last 40 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous season’s festival
• The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a good guide (5 winners, 6 places in last 17 runnings)
• 14 of the last 29 winners started as flat horses
• The last 10 winners were unbeaten that season
• Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 9 times, including 4 of the last 8 years
• 7 of the last 16 winners contested the Christmas Hurdle (Kempton)
• Mares are currently 4 from 10 during last 9 runnings
• 9 of the last 12 favourites won
Negatives….
• Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
• 5 year-olds are just 2 from 113 since 1985, but the 2019 winner was a 5 year-old
• Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older (0-31 in the last 42 runnings)
• Just 2 of the last 18 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
• Christmas Hurdle (Kempton, 26th Dec) winners are just 5 from 33, but – Epatante 2020 & 2023 Constitution Hill) – did the Christmas Hurdle/Champion Hurdle double.
• Just 2 horses have regained the race since 1975
• International Hurdle winners are 0-from-13 (last 21 years)
• Only 2 of the last 26 winners hadn’t raced at the Festival before
• The last Supreme Novice’ Hurdle winner to win the Champion Hurdle the following season was Constitution Hill (2023), but before that was 53 years ago (Bula)
4:40 - Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle 2m 87y) ITV
2024 Winner: LARK IN THE MORNIN (9/1)
Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
Jockey – J J Slevin
UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 11 of the last 20 winners had run exactly 3 times over hurdles before
• French bred horses have a good record
• 10 of the last 20 winners started their careers in France
• Respect Fillies
• 13 of the last 20 winners carried 11st+
• 9 of the last 20 winners won last time out
• 10 of the last 14 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
• 11 of the last 20 had run in the last 25 days
• David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot (4 of last 11), Joseph O’Brien (2 of the last 6) and Alan King-trained horses often do well
• 6 of the last 13 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1 (7 of the last 13 priced 25/1+)
• 13 of the last 20 winners returned a double-figure price
• Respect horses wearing headgear
• 14 of the last 20 winners were rated between 124-134
• 8 of the last 17 winners were British-trained
• The Irish have trained the last 7 winners
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 15 runnings
• 15 of the last 20 winners had won no more than once over hurdles
Negatives….
• Just 3 recent winners had last raced in January or further back
• Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 43 between them
• Just 3 of the last 20 winners rated 135+
• Horses bred in Britain are 0-63 (last 15 years)
• Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 23 (just 4 placed in top 5 too)
• Willie Mullins has never won this race
• Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
• No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
• Horses with 2+ wins over hurdles are just 2 from 20
5:20 – National Hunt Chase (Grade 2) 3m 5f 201y RTV
2024 Winner: CORBETTS CROSS 15/8
Trainer – Emmet Mullins
Jockey – Derek O’Connor
UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses…..
• 13 of the last 23 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 14 of the last 19 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old (25 of the last 34)
• 10 of the last 15 winners had run 5+ times over fences
• 12 of the last 14 winners had run in a Graded Novice chase
• 8 of the last 14 winners had run in a Grade One Novice Chase that season
• 8 of the last 18 had run in a chase at Cheltenham before that season
• 11 of the last 15 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival
• 11 of the last 14 winners returned a single-figure price
• Respect horses wearing headgear (Corbetts Cross 1st-time hood in 2024)
• 10 of the last 14 winners Irish-trained
• 11 of the last 14 winners were rated 145 (or more)
• Look out for JP McManus-owned runners (7 winners)
• Jonjo O’Neill has trained 6 winners in the race (5-from-22)
• Jockey Derek O’Connor has 3 wins / 5 places (from 18 rides)
• Derek O’Connor & Patrick Mullins have won 7 of the last 14 (4 P Mullins, 3 O’Connor)
• Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 13 runnings
• Gordon Elliott has won the race 4 times from just 14 runners
• 3 of the last 7 winners owned by Ronnie Bartlett
Negatives….
• 5 and 6 year-olds are just 2 from 83 since 1989
• Just 5 of the last 13 winners were top-rated
• Favourites have won just 4 of the last 15 runnings
• Just 2 of the last 34 winners were aged 6 years-old
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has NEVER won this race - he’s currently 0 from 19
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has NEVER won this race
• Horses with less than 3 chase starts don’t fare well
• Horses rated in the 130’s have a poor record (1 from 17)
• Just 2 winners in the last 16 returned bigger than 12/1
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Great article Andy.
Not wanting to point out a mistake (even though it is), I wanted to elaborate on the fact that 7 year olds have won 2 of the last 15 renewals of the Supreme from just 22 runners.
If you factor in lto winners and fancied in the betting (single figure odds), these 7yo’s have a record of 1-3-1 in the last 15 years
Just Asian Master qualifies then ,LTO winner,price 25 – 1 .