Each day of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.
We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival for you!
Day Three at the Cheltenham Festival features the Grade One Ryanair Chase - a contest that 16 of the last 20 winners had won at Cheltenham before.
While we've also got the Grade One Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle - a prize that Teahupoo won in 2024 and is a red-hot favourite to defend his title.
You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2024 below.
Cheltenham Day One Trends 2025
Cheltenham Day Two Trends 2025
Cheltenham Day Three Trends 2025
Cheltenham Day Four Trends 2025
Thursday 13th March 2025 (New Course)
Cheltenham Festival Trends 2025
1:20 – Ryanair Mares’ Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 179y ITV
2024 Winner: GOLDEN ACE (10/1)
Trainer – Jeremy Scott
Jockey – Lorcan Williams
UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• A new race (Just 9 renewals)
• All 9 winners aged 5 or 6
• 6 of the last 9 winners trained in Ireland, but last 3 UK trained
• Favourites have won 3 of the 9 runnings
• 6 of the last 9 winners won last time out
• 4 of the 9 winners were French-bred
• 5 of the last 9 winners were top or 2nd top rated
• 5 of the last 9 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
• 5 of the last 9 past winners started their careers in France
• 6 of the last 9 winners had run at least 4 times over hurdles
• 5 of the 9 winners were unbeaten that season
• 4 of the 9 winners have been aged 5 years-old
• 5 of the last 9 winners aged 6 (last 5)
• Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020
• Owner Mrs Susannah Ricci has won 2 of the last 9 runnings
Negatives….
• British trained runners are 3-from-61
• Nicky Henderson is currently 0-from-12
• JP McManus owned are 0-from-10
• 7 year-olds or older are 0-from-24
2:00 – Jack Richard Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (Grade 2) 2m 4f ITV
2020 Winner: IMPERIAL AURA (4/1 fav)
Trainer – Kim Bailey
Jockey – David Bass
UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
- 12 of the last 16 winners aged 6 or 7
- 13 of the last 16 winners finished in the top 2 last time
- 10 of the last 16 winners were a single-figure price
- 8 of the last 14 winners were previous bumper or point winners
- 50% of the last 8 winners ran in the Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase on Trials Day
- 10 of the last 11 winners rated 137+
- 9 of the last 16 winners had only won once over fences
- 7 of the last 9 winners carried 11-7 or more
- Brian Hughes has a good record ( 2 wins from just 5 rides)
- 9 of the last 10 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
- The last 10 winners carried 11-2 or more
Negatives….
- Just 2 of the last 16 winners didn't finish in the top 3 last time out
- Just 1 on the last 16 winners had won more than two chase races
- Only 2 of the last 16 winners aged 8 or older
- Just 2 of the last 16 winners aged 5
2.40 - Pertemps Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) 2m 7f 213y ITV
2024 Winner: MONMIRAL (25/1)
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Harry Cobden
UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• Irish have won the last 7 of last 9 runnings
• Last 13 winners aged 8 or younger
• 9 of the last 17 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
• 12 of the last 24 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
• 13 of the last 14 winners were rated 138 or higher
• 13 of the last 18 winners were rated between 132-142 (inc)
• 12 of the last 14 winners were rated between 138-148
• 12 of the last 20 winners had won over at least 2m7f
• 9 of the last 13 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
• 6 of the last 12 winners ran 7 or less times over hurdles
• 8 of the last 11 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
• 8 of the last 24 winners won their last race
• 6 of the last 9 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
• 3 of the last 16 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
• Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies and Pipe-trained runners
• Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 and 2020
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 7 runnings
• Respect horses with headgear (9 since 2000) & 8 of the last 9
• 8 of the last 9 winners wore a tongue-tie
• 7 of the last 9 winners Irish-trained
• 6 of the last 9 ran in the Leopardstown Qualifier (Christmas)
Negatives….
• Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
• Horses that have won 3+ times that season have a poor recent record
• Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
• 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
• Just 1 horse rated 150+ since 2000 has finished in the top 2
• Only 2 winning favourites in last 19 years
• Just 1 winner in the last 42 years aged 10+
• Willie Mullins has never won this race
• Paul Nicholls is currently 1 from 20 (One winner, One third and two 2nds in the last 11 runnings)
• Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 54
2.50 - Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) 2m 4f 127y ITV
2023 Winner: PROTEKTORAT (17/2)
Trainer – Harry Skelton
Jockey – Dan Skelton
UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• 16 of the 20 winners had won at Cheltenham before
• 7 of the last 12 winners were 2nd season chasers
• All 17 winners (since getting G1 status) had won over 2m4f
• 13 of the last 17 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
• 14 of the last 17 had won or placed at the Festival before
• The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (8 from 31)
• The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
• 16 of the last 20 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
• 9 of the last 13 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
• 16 of the last 17 winners were rated 161+
• Horse rated 170+ have won 4 of the last 7
• 4 of the last 20 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
• 14 of last 20 winners were fav or 2nd fav
• 11 of the last 17 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 16 of the last 20 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• 9 of the last 13 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
• Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Henry De Bromhead & Nicky Henderson are respected
• Respect first time headgear (3 from 13)
• 11 of the last 17 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• Last 11 winners were French-bred
• All winners ran 5 or less times that season
• 5 of the last 9 winners trained by Willie Mullins
• Last 13 winners aged 9 or younger
• The Irish have won 7 of the last 9 runnings
• Since upgraded (2008) ALL 17 winners had run at the previous year's Festival
Negatives….
• Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
• No winner aged 11 or older
• Only 1 of the last 15 winners aged 10
• Just one winner rated 160 or below
• Just 6 of the last 17 won last time out
• No winner was having their Festival debut
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4:00 - Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV
2024 Winner: TEAHUPOO (5/4 fav)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jack Kennedy
UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 14 of the last 20 won last time out
• 7 of the last 11 winners were second season hurdlers
• 21 of the last 25 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 31 of the last 35 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
• 19 of the last 24 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 19 winners since 2000 returned in single-figures
• 10 of the last 23 were French Bred
• Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
• 8 of the last 18 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle last time out
• 20 of the last 25 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
• 15 of the last 20 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
• Respect past winners of the race
• 18 of the last 28 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles
• 3 of the last 7 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
• Since 1987 all winners bar Sire Du Berlais (11) aged 9 or younger
Negatives….
• Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out
• A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
• Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
• Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice
• The Irish are have won the race just 7 times since 1995 (but have won the last 4)
• Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before
• Horses wearing headgear are 1 from 8
• Just 3 winners aged 9 in the last 35 runnings
• Horses aged 10 or older have just one win since1986 (1 from 70) - 2023 year’s winner Sire Du Berlais (11)
4.40 - Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 4f 166y ITV
2024 Winner: SHAKE UP’ARRY (8/1)
Trainer – Ben Pauling
Jockey – Ben Jones
UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• 28 of the last 37 winners were officially rated 140 or less
• 12 of the last 16 winners carried under 11-0
• Look out for French-breds
• 14 of the last 20 winners had run from 25th Jan onwards
• 11 of the last 21 winners had won a race in Feb or March
• Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
• The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 27 runnings
• 18 of the last 24 winners returned at double-figure odds
• 24 of the last 33 winners had run at the Festival before (but 8 of last 13 were having Festival debut)
• 24 of the last 25 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
• 9 of the last 15 winners had 9 or less chase runs
• 19 of the last 25 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market
• 7 of the last 9 winners were novices or second season chasers
• 19 of the last 21 winners had raced that calendar year
• Respect Gigginstown House Stud horses
• 6 of the last 9 winners won last time out
• The last 6 winners had won at Cheltenham that season
• 3 of the last 6 ridden by a claiming jockey
Negatives….
• Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
• The Irish have only sent out 5 winners since 1982, but this could be turning with these all coming since 2016
• Willie Mullins has never won this race
• Only 4 of the last 21 winners had run more than 12 times (fences)
• Just 4 winning favourites in the last 19 years
• Only 6 of last 30 winners won with 11st+
• Just 3 winners older than 9 in the last 12 years
• Only 2 of the last 21 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
5.30 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase 3m 2f RTV
2024 Winner: INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN (13/8 fav)
Trainer – Gavin Cromwell
Jockey – Mr Derek O’Connor
UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• Respect horses aged between 7-9 year-olds (but last year’s winner 6)
• 12 of the last 17 winners failed to win earlier that season
• 11 of the last 17 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
• 10 of the last 13 winners rated between 137-143
• 10 of the last 15 winners returned 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
• 10 of the last 15 winners carried 11st 5lbs+
• 12 of the last 16 winners ran in February
• Look for Elliott, McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
• Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
• 20 of the last 25 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
• Look for non-claiming amateur riders
• 8 of the last 14 winners wore headgear
• 13 of the last 16 winners came from the top 6 in the market
• Jockey Derek O’Connor 2nd 3 times and 1st in 2019 and 2024
• Owner JP McManus often does well in the race (4 of the last 13)
• 20 of the last 22 winners DIDN’T win last time out
Negatives….
• Just 7 Irish winners in last 41 years (but have won 7 of the last 11)
• Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
• Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 24
• Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race (never won it)
• Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
• French breds are 1 from 88 since 2005
• Just 2 of the last 20 winners aged 10+
• Avoid claiming jockeys – 3 from 114 since 2009
• Just 2 of the last 22 winners won last time out
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Hi,the trends on the pertemps hurdle says
6 out of the last 10 had 7 runs or less! Positive and then in the negative column it says avoid horses with less than 6 runs ?Can you please explain what to look for ! Thanks Dave .
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