Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 13th Feb 2016

This weekend the C4 cameras are at Newbury racecourse for four races that include the Denman Chase, Game Spirit Chase and Betfair Hurdle, while they also head to Warwick for a couple of races.  As normal we’ve got all the big race trends and stats – we hope they help you narrow down the field and pin-point a few winners.

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NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

1.50 - Betfair Acca Edge Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m52y CH4

11/11 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before
9/11 – Had run within the last 9 weeks
8/11 – Had won over at least 2 ½ miles (hurdles) before
8/11 – Aged 7 or younger
8/11 – Carried 10-13 or more
7/11 – Carried 11-1 or more
7/11 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
7/11 – Unplaced last time out
6/11 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/11 – Aged 7 years-old
5/11 – Had run over hurdles at Newbury before (no winners)
5/11 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
3/11 – French bred
2/11 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/11 – Raced at Haydock last time out
2/11 – Won last time out
2/11 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 9.5/1

2.25 - Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m CH4

10/12 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
10/12 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
10/12 – Rated 150+
10/12 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/12 – Placed favourites
9/12 – Aged 8 or younger
9/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/12 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (3 winners)
8/12 – Raced at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time out
7/12 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
6/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/12 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
5/12 – Winning favourites
5/12 – Won last time out
4/12 – French bred
4/12 – Irish bred
3/12 – Returned a double-figure price
3/12 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/12 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman & Kauto Star)
2/12 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/12 – Won by the Pipe stable
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/2

Note: 2009 running was staged at Kempton

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3.00 – Betfair Exchange Chase (Registered as The Game Spirit Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m92y CH4

11/11 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Placed favourites
10/11 – Aged 8 or younger
10/11 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (2 winners)
8/11 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
8/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/11 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
9/11 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
6/11 – French bred
6/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
6/11 – Won last time out
5/11 – Had raced at Newbury (fences) before (3 winners)
5/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
4/11 – Ran at Sandown last time out
2/11 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/11 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/11 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Champion Chase
1/11 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Arkle Chase
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 9/4

3.35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y CH4

13/13 – Carried 11-7 or less in weight
12/13 – Aged 7 or younger
12/13 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
11/13 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
11/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/13 – Rated 130 or higher
11/13 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
11/13 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
10/13 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
10/13 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
9/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
7/13 – Irish bred
7/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/13 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
5/13 – Aged 5 years-old (including 5 of last 8)
4/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/13 – Trained by Gary Moore
2/13  - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
1/13 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
18 of the last 19 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 14.4/1

WARWICK Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

2.05 - olbg.com Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f CH4

Just two previous running
Willie Mullins has won both runnings
Both renewals went to the favourite
Both winners carried 11-5
Willie Mullins has a 71% record with his hurdlers at the course (5 from 7)

2.40 – 7bets4free.com Kingmaker Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m CH4

6 previous runnings
6/6 – Aged 7 or younger
5/6 – Had won no more than twice (fences) in the UK
6/6 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
4/6 – Aged 5 or 7 years-old
5/6 – Won over 2m fences before
4/6 – Rated between 137-147
5/6 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
3/6 – Unplaced favs
3/6 – Winning favourites
3/6 – Won last time out
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 43% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 39% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
2009 renewal was at Sandown

 

 

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