Placepot Pointers

Placepot pointers – Sunday 6th March

HUNTINGDON – MARCH 6

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £146.40 (6 favourites: 3 winners--1 placed--2 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend (all codes) in 2016 (calendar year): £614.22

Average NH Placepot dividend in 2016: £891.36

Average Huntingdon Placepot dividend in 2016: £82.26 (5 meetings)

Favourite records at Huntingdon in 2016:

34 races - 35 favourites - 13 winners - 8 placed - 14 unplaced (exact science)

Odds on ratio: 4/8

Quick stat: All six Placepot favourites won on the card two years ago, followed by three gold medallists last season.  10/14 favourites (all races) have won at the corresponding meeting during the last two years, stats which include a top priced winner of 6/1.  Although fifteen market leaders have won during a five year study period, those stats has evolved via 15 different trainers.  Today's mix of 46 different trainers responsible for the 62 runners tells you all you need to know!

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Huntingdon: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 12 (Red Hammer) & 9 (Toviere)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Alberto's Dream), 2 (Larteta) & 4 (Albatros Du Guye)

Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Champagne Chaser), 8 (Distant Sound) & 14 (Double Court)

Leg 4 (3.30): 5 (Rocky Bender) & 6 (Arbeo)

Leg 5 (4.00): 4 (Ivanhoe) & 1 (Aldeburgh)

Leg 6 (4.30): 5 (Late Night Lily) & 7 (Song Sea)

Suggested stake:  144 bets to 20p stakes

2.00: Four-year-old leads the five-year-olds 3-2 via the last seven renewals.  Phil McEntee runs far more of his NH raiders here at Huntingdon than at other tracks, though his four-year-old newcomer My Mistress might have trouble trying to get the better of fellow vintage representatives RED HAMMER and (possibly) LEVELLING.  The pick of the five-year-olds should prove to be Oliver Sherwood's beaten favourite TOVIERE.

Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders have won this opening event.  Six of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date.

2.30:  Seven and eight-year-olds have (equally) shared four of the six contests, as have horses who have carried a minimum burden of 11-4. With no eight-year-olds in the line-up this time around, two horses possess ticks in both of the trend boxes, namely ALBERTO'S DREAM and LARTETA.  Trend spotters will note however that the latter named Sarah Humphrey raider will slip below the 'weight barrier’ if the conditional pilot takes any more than two of the ten pounds allowed.  ALBATROS DE GUYE is added into the equation accordingly.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far by winning their respective events.

Huntingdon record of course winners in the second event on the card:

1/3--Alberto's Dream

1/1--Albatros De Guye (C&D winner)

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3.00: Before Saturday's sport was contested, the ratio of the Nigel Twiston-Davies runners during the last fortnight stood at 5/26.  The aggregate of the other represented trainers in this contest was 7/62 by comparison, whereby Nigel's raider DOUBLE COURT is added into the mix despite the fact that bookmakers will be offering log odds about the five-year-old.  It's worth noting that Nigel has booked the services of a useful five pound claimer (James Bargary) to reduce the burden whereby DOUBLE COURT can potentially race of his exact mark in the 'long handicap'.  Others for the overnight mix include DISTANT SOUND and CHAMPAGNE CHASER in a race which should not prove difficult to win. There will be worse outsiders on the Huntingdon card STONEMADFORSPEED I'll wager.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Huntingdon card.

3.30: Just when winter is seemingly being kicked in touch, back comes the rain, sleet and snow to aid and abet the yard of Venetia Williams whose inmates generally prefer plenty of cut in the ground.  ROCKY BENDER is a fine example and Venetia's Saddles' Hall representative can go close here, probably having course specialist ARBEO to beat.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Huntingdon programme.

Huntingdon record of course winners in the fourth race on the card:

3/4--Arbeo

4.00: Six of the seven winners have carried a minimum weight of 11-1 thus far, whereby the bottom three horses are eliminated form inquiries by this self- confessed 'anorak'.  I might have added Richard Johnson's mount Fields Of Glory into the mix but for the trend, leaving ALDEBURGH and IVANHOE to carry my Placepot cash.

Favourite factor: Until last year, the only favourites to finish in the frame via six contests were the 9/4--11/4--9/4 market leaders which obliged in 2010, 2012 and 2014 respectively.  Last year's 9/4 market leader claimed a toteplace position by finishing second in a 'short field' contest.  New readers might want to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

4.30: Dan Skelton's ratio continues to impress, so much so that I thought I would offer the details.  First season; 16% strike rate in the NH sector via 27 winners - Last season: 19% via 73 winners - this season: 20% via 85 gold medallists at the time of writing.  Dan saddles beaten favourite LATE NIGHT LILY who has been given a chance to atone for recent losses.  SONG SEA and LEMTARA BAY might offer most resistance at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: The toteplacepot finale is another new contest on Sunday.

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Huntingdon card on Sunday:

4--Claire Dyson (Huntingdon stats this season: 1/13)

3--Oliver Sherwood (3/11)

3--Dan Skelton (4/21)

3--Nigel Twiston-Davies (0/13)

3--Venetia Williams (0/11)

2--Kim Bailey (2/14)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (3/15)

2--Martin Smith (1/3)

2--Tim Vaughan (0/10)

2--Ian Williams (2/13)

+ 36 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

62 declared runners

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2 replies
    • MalBoyle
      MalBoyle says:

      Well played Tim – like in all these instances, we can only recommend what we consider to be good advise, it is you people who sacrifice your own hard earned cash, so don’t forget to congratulate yourself too Sir!

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