Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 14th Jan 17

More LIVE ITV4 action this Saturday as the cameras head to Warwick for the Classic Chase, plus they are also at Kempton Park, with the Lanzarote Hurdle their main event.

As normal, horse racing trends expert Andy Newton is on-hand with all the key stats for the LIVE ITV races – hopefully they might help point you in the direction of a few winners by narrowing down the fields.


 

 

 

Kempton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RUK/C4)

2.05 – 32Red Casino Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

3 previous runnings
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2016
Trainer Alan King won the race in 2015
Trainer Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014
2/3 – Winning favourites
2/3 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting
Nicky Henderson has a 32% record with his chasers at the track
Paul Nicholls has a 24% record with his chasers at the track
Venetia Williams is just 2 from 36 with her chasers at the track

2.40 – 32Red.com Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

15/15 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
14/15 – Aged 7 or younger
14/15 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
10/15 – Had never won a hurdles race over this trip or longer before
11/15 – Had won exactly 2 times over hurdles before
12/15 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Winning distance 2 ¼ lengths or less
10/15 – Irish (5) or French (5) bred
10/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Carried 10-11 or less
10/15 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
9/15 – Aged 6 years-old
9/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Had run at Kempton before (4 won)
5/15-  Winning favourites
3/15 – Trained by Nick Williams
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Trainer Gary Moore won the race in 1996, 1998 & 2007
Since 1980 (35 runnings) 31 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/1
Note: the 2006 running was a dead heat between Rayshan & Buck Whaley and run at Carlisle


3.15 – 32Red.com Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV4

Just four previous runnings
Philip Hobbs won the race 12 months ago and in 2014
3/4 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
3/4 – Carried 11-3 or more
2/4 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/4 – Winning favourites
Nicky Henderson has a 32% record with this chasers at the track
Ben Pauling is 2 from 5 with his chasers at the track
Venetia Williams is just 2 from 36 with her chasers at the track
Tom Cannon has a 21% record riding over fences at the track


3.45 – 32Red.com Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m ITV4

9/9 – Had won over at least 2m hurdles before
9/9 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
9/9 – Aged 6 or older
8/9 – Favourites that finished in the top 2
7/9 – Aged 6 years-old
7/9 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
6/9 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
5/9 – Finished 4th or better last time out
4/9 – Irish bred
3/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Returned a double-figure price
1/9 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 10/1


Warwick Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV4)


1.50 - Betfred Mobile Hampton Novices´ Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m110y ITV4

9/9 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
9/9 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
9/9 – Had won between 0-2 times over fences
9/9 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/9 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences
7/9 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
7/9 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
6/9 – Aged 7 years-old
6/9 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
5/9 – Had won over 3m (or further) chase
5/9 – Won last time out
5/9 – Irish bred
2/9 – Trained by Alan King
2/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/9 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/9 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 9/4

2.25 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 3m1f ITV4

11/11 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
11/11 – Had won between 1-4 times over hurdles before
9/11 – Carried 11-0 or less
9/11 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
9/11 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
9/11 – Went onto finish unplaced in the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
8/11 – Had never raced over hurdles at Warwick before
8/11 – Officially rated between 127-142
8/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
6/11 – Placed favourites
6/11 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
3/11 – Won last time out
2/11 – Ran at Bangor last time out
2/11 – Won by trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/11 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/11 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/11 – Winning favourites
The last 6 winners were aged 8 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 15/2


3.00 – Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Leamington Novices´ Hurdle) Grade 2 Cl1 2m5f
ITV4

10/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
10/10 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
10/10 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/10 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
9/10 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/10 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
7/10 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
6/10 – Irish bred
6/10 – Won last time out
5/10 – Winning favourites
5/10 – Placed favourites
5/10 – Aged 5 years-old
2/10 – Went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (No Refuge, 2005 RSA Novices’ Hurdle, The New One, 2013 Neptune)
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 7/2

 

3.35 – Betfred Classic Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f ITV4

11/11 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
10/11 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m
10/11 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
8/11 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
8/11 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
8/11 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
8/11 – Winners that came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
7/11 –  Placed in the top 3 in their last race
7/11 – Officially rated between 129-140
7/11 – Won between 2-5 times over fences before
7/11 –  Won by a horse aged 9 or older
7/11 – Had raced at Warwick (hurdles, chase, NH Flat) previously
6/11 – Favourites unplaced
6/11 – Won by an Irish bred horse
6/11 – Had run at either Cheltenham (3) or Newbury (3) in their last race
5/11 – Returned a double-figure price
3/11 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all failed to finish)
3/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/11 – Won their last race
2/11 – Trained by Alan King
2/11– Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 11 runnings is 10/1

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

Trainers Quotes

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 20 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

"Scribner Creek - Won well two starts ago here, but pulled a bit too hard last time out over further. The drop back in trip should help as they should be going a bit quicker which should help him not race too freely. The plan is to drop him in and come with a run and should not be far away. Doesn't look much value though, but we'd be disappointed if he's not in the frame."
Mark Loughnane

10/01/17 3rd 11/2

"What Usain - All three career wins have been here at the track - only second run for us so still finding our feet with the horse but wasn't beaten far last time at Newcastle over a mile and a repeat of that effort would see him go close. But draw 12 not ideal so might need a bit of luck from there. Tough race, but each-way claims if not getting into too much traffic problems."
Mick Appleby

10/01/17 2nd 12/1

"Call Out Loud - Better last time on second run back so seems to be slowly blowing the cobwebs away. More needed up in grade here off the same mark, but trying the first-time visor here as took a hold last time - hopefully this will settle him better. Stays further too so that will help down the long straight."
Mick Appleby

10/01/17 1st 10/1

"Among Angels - Drop in class and the drop in trip here are both things in his favour. The horse is in great form at home and would not be shocked to see him run well at a fair each-way price."
Mark Loughnane

10/01/17 2nd 7/2

"Big Amigo - Won well the last day here over CD - has come out of that race very well and despite a 6lb penalty everything is in place for a big run. No reason why he can't go very close again, but, in truth, we'll be a bit disappointed if he can't follow-up."
Mark Loughnane

10/01/17 1st 9/4

"Mithqaal - A nice prize here and we look to have a decent chance. This horse loved the surface last time when dotting up by 2 lengths over 7f. The step up to a mile should be fine and a 6lb rise for that looks fair. Several others that like the surface too, so a bit more needed but is a horse certainly capable of taking this and one of my best chances on the day."
Mick Appleby

10/01/17 1st 4/6

"Pancake Day - Ran a cracker last time when third here over 6f. Been given a chance with same mark and grade. Drop down to 5f is no problem and in good form at home. Hands and Heels race, but we claim a further 7lbs so should be giving his jockey a nice run and should not be far away."
David C Griffiths

10/01/17 1st 4/1

 

Your first 30 days for just £1