Placepot Pointers

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 9th August

PONTEFRACT - AUGUST 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £77.90 (6 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 4 (Hawridge Glory) & 5 (Gibson Park)

Leg 2 (2.40): 2 (Beatbox Rhythm) & 3 (Chief Justice)

Leg 3 (3.10): 5 (Im Dapper Too), 8 (Grey Destiny), 6 (Natajack) & 2 (Sophisticated Heir)

Leg 4 (3.40): 5 (Kasperenko), 4 (Icefall) & 3 (Sennockian Star)

Leg 5 (4.10): 13 (Crosse Fire), 1 (Tarboosh) & 11 (See The Sun)

Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Stanley) & 3 (Echo Of Lightning)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

*PONTEFRACT HAS PASSED ITS MORNING INSPECTION - RACING GOES AHEAD

Earlier this morning (when the meeting was still in doubt), I wrote the following sentences;  You might like to consider the two Ron Harris runners at Bath this afternoon following his 152/1 double on the corresponding card last year.  Ron’s recent record is 2/14 – offering seven points of level stake profit during the period.  Bath representatives: Viola Park: (4.30) & Secret Potion (5.00)

 

2.10:  Amateur events are difficult to digest as I have declared on many occasions, but the one thing I really cannot understand is why racecourses decide to stage these contests as the first race on the card.  I fully appreciate the reasons for these events, but why can’t such races be contested at the end of seven race meetings (such as this one), when people who are not overly interested in amateur contests can beat the traffic home, whereby toteplacepot wagers would also be unaffected?  Surely the friends and supporters of the amateur riders would also have more time to linger and talk to the pilots in an around the unsaddling area with no races to follow the finale?  Upwards and onward (hoping that we race at Pontefract today) by informing that HAWRIDGE GLORY is the only horse with any reasonable form on soft ground (beaten less than three lengths under those conditions last time out), whilst Rod Millman continues to send out a steady stream of winners.  GIBSON PARK should represent NH trainer Dan Skelton to good effect.  That said from a win perspective, Dan has failed to saddle a winner on the level during the last five years, albeit via just eight representatives.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 21 market leaders have reached the frame via 16 renewals (five winners).

 

2.40: This is one of the many (Novice Stakes) events which has been deemed a ‘new event’ by the BHA but for the last time, I am going to include previous results, mainly because nothing has changed in the contest in terms of class status, distance etc.  You might choose to keep these stats for future reference.  Favourite backers go into battle with confidence on a high as ten of the last fourteen renewals have been won by market leaders of one description or another. Why should I dent you this information?  BEATBOX RHYTHM appears to be the horse to beat this time around with connections probably having most to fear from the likes of Richard Fahey’s Acclamation newcomer CHIEF JUSTICE and TEBAY.

Favourite factor: 12 favourites have won during the last 18 years, with 13 gold medallists having been returned at odds of 11/4 or less.

Draw factor (six furlongs most recent result offered first):

2-7-1 (10 ran-good to firm)

2-7-5 (8 ran - good)

8-5-1 (8 ran - good to firm)

4-11-5 (11 ran - good)

1-9-10 (9 ran - good to firm)

4-5 (5 ran - good to firm)

1-7 (6 ran - good)

1-3 (7 ran - good)

8-7-5 (12 ran - good)

1-2-3 (10 ran - good to firm)

6-7-3 (9 ran - good to firm)

6-13-3 (13 ran - good)

13-12-5 (13 ran - good to firm)

1-7 (7 ran - good to firm)

3-5-10 (11 ran - soft)

11-13-3 (13 ran - good)

10-7-3 (11 ran - good to firm)

5-8 (7 ran - good to firm)

2-6-9 (12 ran - good to firm)

 

3.10: Paddy Power are out on a limb by offering 28/1 about soft/heavy ground winner SOPHISTICAED HEIR, Kevin Frost’s seven-year-old having attracted each way support overnight as far down to 16/1 in a place.  More logical winners of the contest arguably include GREY DESTINY, IM DAPPER TOO and NATAJACK.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 4/1 favourite finished out of the money behind horses which filled the frame at 7/1-5/1-8/1.  A slight improvement to report last year as the market leader (at least) claimed a Placepot position when finding one to good having been returned at 7/4.

Record of course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/2—Captain Revelation (good to firm)

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

1-2-7 (8 ran - good to firm)

11-8-9 (10 ran – good)

 

3.40: Seven of the last fifteen winners have carried weights of 9-4 or more with five of the six runners 'qualifying' via the weight trend this time around.  Good and bad offerings to report regarding Mark Johnston’s raider SENNOCKIAN STAR, given that the trainer has saddled the winner of three of the last five renewals of this event when represented.  On the flip side of the argument, Franny Norton’s mount has failed to win on soft ground (or worse) on all ten assignments to date.  You pays your money and takes your choice!  We are guessing on account of the ground about KASPERENKO but that said, David Lanigan’s runners are usually well to the fore when backed, so the advice is to keep ‘em peeled and act accordingly.  The other potential winner in the field according to your truly is ICEFALL who was only beaten a head last back end on soft ground at Thirsk.

Favourite factor: Eight favourites have won during the study period, though just four of the other 15 market leaders secured additional toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event:

1/1—Mutadaffeq (good)

1/1—Icefall (good to firm)

 

4.10: Low (to middle) numbers are generally favoured in such races at Pontefract though unfortunately in this event, we have no renewals on soft ground to call on in terms of the draw.  CROSSE FIRE is the only course winner who has prevailed on anything like today’s ground whereby Scott Dixon’s course and distance winner is the first name on the team sheet.  TARBOOSH is a winner of two of his last three races and has a proven track record with moisture in the ground.  My trio against the twelve remaining contenders is completed by SEE THE SUN whose connections have cause to be optimistic with ground conditions likely to worry others more than Tim Easterby’s team.

Favourite factor: Just two clear market leaders and a joint favourite have scored during the last 20 years, whilst only 10 of the 24 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

9-13-8 (12 ran – good to firm)

4-3-1 (9 ran - good)

5-4-2 (8 ran - good to firm)

1-4 (6 ran - good)

6-4-10 (10 ran - good to firm)

6-2-8 (8 ran - good to firm)

1-7-6 (11 ran - good)

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2-9-1 (11 ran - good)

8-11-2 (14 ran - good)

5-7-6 (11 ran - firm)

13-3-9 (13 ran - good to firm)

14-2-7 (14 ran - good)

13-7-14 (15 ran - good to firm)

1-2-12 (12 ran - good to firm)

7-8-5-1 (17 ran - good)

2-17-3-5 (17 ran - good)

16-3-4-17 (17 ran - good to firm)

11-2-12 (14 ran - good to firm)

11-4-3-2 (18 ran - good to firm)

Record of course winners in the fifth race:

1/4—Sandra’s Secret (good to firm)

1/8—Jack Luey (good to firm)

1/2—See The Sun (good to firm)

1/2—Crosse Fire (soft)

 

4.40: Five of the nine winners have carried 9-1 or more to victory as have 17 of the 27 horses which have secured Placepot positions.  Six of the ten runners are discarded accordingly (includes those via claiming jockeys), which leaves yours truly assessing just four horses without requiring the aid of an abacus on this occasion.  Accordingly, STANLEY is preferred to ECHO OF LIGHTNING and the other relevant pair in the Placepot finale.  The ground has seemingly gone against Talent Scout, though that has not stopped win and place support for Karen Tutty’s raider from being recorded overnight.

Favourite factor:  Seven of the twelve favourites (via nine renewals) have finished out with the washing, statistics which include two successful market leader and one joint favourite from a win perspective.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

2-1-4 (8 ran – good to firm)

1-9-4 (9 ran - good)

3-1-2 (8 ran - good to firm)

6-2-8 (10 ran - good)

3-6-10 (10 ran - good to firm)

12-4-3 (11 ran - good to firm)

4-5-1 (8 ran - good)

6-5-17 (14 ran - good)

7-3-8 (8 ran - good)

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale: 

2/12—Talent Scout (good & good to firm)

1/3--Rockwood (good)

2/5—Ralphy Boy (good & good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two of more) on the Pontefract card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

7 runners—David O’Meara (5/25 – Profit of 7 points)

4—Ruth Carr (1/14 – loss of 3 points)

4—Michael Dods (1/19 – loss of 2 points)

4—Tim Easterby (6/28 – Profit of 10 points)

4—Richard Fahey (4/51 – loss of 36 points)

4—Micky Hammond (2/17 – Profit of 1 point)

3—Anthony Brittain (0/2)

3—Mark Johnston (5/30 – loss of 13 points)

3—Karen Tutty (0/3)

2—Michael Appleby (0/12)

2—Declan Carroll (1/10 – Profit of 3 points)

2—Tom Dascombe (1/7 – loss of 4 points)

2—John Davies (1/2 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Scott Dixon (1/4 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Ann Duffield (0/7)

2—Jedd O’Keeffe (0/9)

2—Paul Midgley (1/15 – loss of 7 points)

2—Lawrence Mullaney (1/6 – loss of 1 point)

2—David Simcock (No previous runners this season at Pontefract)

2—Richard Whitaker (4/5 – Profit of 18 points)

+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

87 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £17.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 1 unplaced

Brighton: £1,025.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Yarmouth: £194.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Kempton: £217.70 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

 

 

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