NEWMARKET - OCTOBER 25
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £17.90 (6 favourites - 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (1.15): 7 (High Seas) & 8 (Lady Al Thumama)
Leg 2 (1.45): 6 (Left Alone) & 5 (La Diva)
Leg 3 (2.20): 5 (Letsme Avenue), 6 (Episcia), 18 (Contribute) & 1 (Move To The Front)
Leg 4 (2.55): 7 (Elwazir), 10 (Key Victory) & 13 (Maypole)
Leg 5 (3.30): 10 (Clearly), 5 (Song Maker) & 11 (Dynamic)
Leg 6 (4.05): 2 (Bow Street), 6 (Talas) & 8 (Wild West Hero)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
*It should be noted that there are no previous course winners on the entire card at Newmarket today – lest you thought I had forgotten to include them in my column!
Newmarket (Five year study of this meeting):
37 races – 12 winning favourites – 36/37 winners scored at a top price of 14/1
Average Placepot dividend: £136.80
Highest dividend: £353.60 (2012) - Lowest dividend: £17.90 (2016)
Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:
5 winners—John Gosden (9/2, 4/1, 2/1, 8/13* & 2/5*) – 7 runners today:
Wild Impala (1.15), Timpani (1.45), Elsaakb (2.20), Burlington & Stylehunyer (2.55), Clearly (3.30) & Mythological (4.40)
1.15: Five of the six Placepot races are juvenile events, as are seven of the eight races on the card. This makes for interesting racing, though aside from our favourite wager, perhaps any other wagers should be saved for another day though that said, the favourite stats (see below) are particularly impressive following five renewals of this opening event. The fact that the first four races on the card are contested over the 'specialist seven furlong trip' adds to the intrigue. Upwards and onward by adding that I am leaving my stats in the mix for this race because although the BHA deem this as a new contest, it is the same Class 5 event for juvenile fillies over seven furlongs as was ever the case, aside from its ‘new novice prefix’. Twelve runners face the starter in this first division of the opening event, albeit only three entries have been taking seriously on the exchanges at time of writing. I can only become involved from a Placepot perspective, whereby HIGH SEAS and LADY AL THUMAMA are taken ahead of Wild Impala from a value for money viewpoint.
Favourite factor: The seven favourites to date have snared four gold medals and two of the bronze variety alongside toteplacepot positions. The biggest priced winner thus far was returned at just 6/1.
1.45: LEFT ALONE and (to a fashion) LA DIVA are the only horses being backed overnight and it would seem churlish to ignore their claims in a race which should not prove difficult to win, especially by Newmarket standards.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event on the Newmarket card whereby the same stats apply, whatever the BHA might suggest. Leave it Mal – leave it!
2.20: Horses carrying nine stones or more have secured the four contests at 9/1-8/1-8/1-15/8* to date, statistics which potentially eliminate seven horses in the field. Last year’s 9/1 winner (Tap Tap Boom) was short listed and hopefully included is this year’s gold medallist, my trio against the remaining 17 runners consisting of LETSBE AVENUE, EPISCIA and CONTRIBUTE. Martin Meade saddles the latter named raider, with the trainer boasting 2/7 stats here on the Rowley Mile this season, winners which have produced level stake profits of 53 points. I have included Martin’s representative even though his Bahamian Bounty gelding hails from the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap. The reserve nomination is awarded to Clive Cox’s hat trick seeker MOVE TO THE FRONT, especially with Clive having ended a (rare) extended run of losers yesterday when celebrating a 9/1 success, a price which is still available with a few firms relating to his Lord Shankill colt.
Favourite factor: Only one of the four favourites (winner at 15/8) has secured a Placepot positions thus far.
2.55: I won’t waste your time or mine, suffice to say that this is (supposedly) a new race but as nothing has changed aside for its name, I have left the updated stats in place. That said, I have to confirm that this is my stance and not necessarily the opinion of ‘geegeez’. Upwards and onward by informing that Roger Varian saddled last year’s winner whereby his newcomer Masaarr will be watched with an eye to the future though from a Placepot perspective at the very least, ELWAZIR and Charlie Appleby’s Teofilo newcomer KEY VICTORY should figure prominently though once again, no money could be prized from my wallet relating to naming the winner of the contest. That said, Bet365 are arguably too big at 11/1 about John Gosden’s Raven’s Pass debutant STYLEHUNTER, though the declaration of MAYPOLE (eye catching fourth at Goodwood on his first day at school) also suggests that the first named pair might not have things going all their own way in an intriguing event.
Favourite factor: Six of the seven winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, though we had to wait until 2015 for the first successful market leader to be recorded. Five of the nine favourites have finished in the frame.
3.30: Although three-year-olds lead the four-year-old 3-2 from a win perspective to date, the older raiders edge the Placepot stats 8-7. The only potential four-year-old in the field has been withdrawn whereby I will home in on the nine junior raiders. You will have noted the additional information about this meeting just before the race by race analysis which suggested that John Gosden was the trainer to behold and the popular handler might snare this prize with CLEARLY who looked a highly promising individual before her last effort whereby ‘headgear’ has been added into the equation this time around. If the ‘aid’ does not work the oracle, SONG MAKER and DYNAMIC are taken as the main potential beneficiaries, the pair being listed in order of preference.
Favourite factor: Only two of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame via five renewals to date. We still await the first successful favourites, whilst four of the five winners have scored at a top price of 15/2, the event having been secured by a 20/1 chance.
4.05: Yet another of the ‘novice’ races, whereby you will know the stance I have adopted against the powers that be! 13 renewals had slipped by the since the previous successful favourite before the 2015 market leader obliged, though the race reverted to type twelve months ago when the favourite was beaten, albeit a Placepot position was secured. Cracksman won the contest last year though unfortunately, John Gosden does not have a representative this time around. BOW STREET could monopolise the contest (apologies for that play on words), though newcomers TALAS and WILD WEST HERO are not eliminated from my thoughts as six o’clock strikes up this morning in the east wing of the Boyle estate.
Favourite factor: Market leaders have won seven of the last eighteen renewals whilst 13 of the 19 favourites have finished in the frame.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
9 runners—Richard Hannon (5/48 – loss of 17 points)
7—John Gosden (11/52 +20)
5—Stuart Williams (0/10)
4—Charlie Appleby (13/33 (+27)
4—Ed Dunlop (0/18)
4—Roger Varian (5/29 +11)
3—Michael Appleby (1/14 – loss of 4 points)
3—Andrew Balding (5/33 – loss of 11 points)
3—Clive Cox (0/7)
3—Harry Dunlop (0/1)
3—Richard Fahey (2/30 – loss of 15 points)
3—William Haggas (3/30 – loss of 11 points)
3—Phil McBride (0/7)
3—Martin Meade (2/7 +53)
2—Robyn Brisland (0/1)
2—Tom Dascombe (2/9 – slight loss)
2—Charlie Fellowes (1/13 +2)
2—Charlie Hills (3/36 – loss of 36 points)
2—Mark Johnston (4/48 – loss of 16 points)
2—William Knight (0/5)
2—Hugo Palmer (1/26 – loss of 5 points)
2—John Ryan (1/11 – level on the year)
2—David Simcock (0/13)
2—Sir Michael Stoute (3/30 – loss of 12 points)
2—Mark Tompkins (No previous runners)
+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
101 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Sedgefield: The is a new meeting on the racing calendar
Worcester: £284.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Kempton (A/W): £116.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced