ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 22
Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last seven years:
2017: £49.40 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)
2016: £1,251.10 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)
2015: £139.40 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
2014: £84.20 (7 favourites: No winners - 4 placed - 3 unplaced)
2013: £195.20 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
2012: £257.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
2011: £2,568.10 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend: £649.28
45 favourites - 13 winners - 12 placed - 20 unplaced
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 42.9% units went through – 20/1 – 2/1* - 20/1
Race 2: 62.5% of the remaining units when through – 6/1 -10/1 – 9/4*
Race 3: 96.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/6* - 11/4 – 9/2
Race 4: 83.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/9* & 12/1
Race 5: 24.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 8/1 – 10/1 (5/1)
Race 6: 27.9% of the units secured the dividend – 20/1 – 13/2 – 14/1 – 8/1 (4/1)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot:
Leg 1 (2.30): 10 (Main Edition), 1 (Angel’s Hideaway) & 8 (Just Wonderful)
Leg 2 (3.05): 3 (Old Persian), 6 (Elector) & 5 (Highbrow)
Leg 3 (3.40): 15 (Sioux Nation), 11 (Invisible Army) & 20 (Heartache)
Leg 4 (4.20): 3 (Alpha Centauri) & 12 (Veracious)
Leg 5 (5.00): 16 (Desert Diamond), 15 (Ceilidh’s Dream & 17 (Agrotera)
Leg 6 (5.35): 5 (Appeared), 4 (Walton Street) & 15 (Eynhallow)
Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes
2.30: Mark Johnston snared the last race on Thursday and MAIN EDITION is my idea of the likeliest winner of the opening contest today, especially with the trainer having booked James Doyle to ride the Zoffany filly. The combination boast a 5/15 ratio this season and coming into this event having won both of her races in impressive style to date, MAIN EDITION is the first name on the team sheet. Others to consider include ANGEL’S HIDEAWAY (looks a tad big at 16/1 with Unibet for a ‘Frankie’ contender) and JUST WONDERFUL who appears to be the pick of the O’Brien pair at the top of the market.
Favourite factor: Twelve favourites have claimed Placepot positions via the last sixteen renewals, statistics which include four winners.
3.05: Sir Michael Stoute has won this race twice in the last five year and there will be worse outsiders on the card today than his Dansili colt ELECTOR I’ll wager. Zaaki ran well at a big price yesterday (as I anticipated) and ELECTOR could follow suit in what could arguably be called a slight sub-standard renewal of the ‘Edward VII’ this afternoon. Talking of outsiders, I would not readily dismiss the chance of HIGHBROW at 25’s either, albeit a more logical winner to consider is OLD PERSIAN from my viewpoint. 7/1 about Rostropoich might be worth consideration from a win perspective, but Aidan’s raider will not offer value for money from a Placepot angle according to the gospel of yours truly. I took that view about Order Of St George yesterday which proved to be the right route to take having landed the forecast in the Gold Cup.
Favourite factor: This is the best race for favourite backers throughout the five days, with nine of the last twenty one market leaders having prevailed, a top priced winner of 12/1 being recorded during the study period. Five of the other twelve market leaders finished out of the frame.
Record of the course winner in the field:
3.40: Being a self-confessed 'trend anorak', I have come out in a nasty rash with only three contests to work from. Last year’s ‘Queen Mary’ winner HEARTACHE is the ‘dark horse’ in the field and having rattled home here under fast conditions twelve months ago, I prepared to gamble that she will manage the sixth furlong well enough to potentially secure a Placepot position at around the 20/1 mark. INVISIBLE ARMY strikes me as a more logical winner over this trip however, with connections possibly having most to fear from SIOUX NATION. Conditions look set to suit Aidan O’Brien’s latter named raider which might just tip the scales in his favour. Main Desire is another win and place option for speculative readers to consider.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 favourite finished nearer last than first before the last two successful (7/4 & 5/6) favourites made amends on behalf of the majority of punters.
Record of the four course winners in the Commonwealth Cup:
1/1—Invincible Army (soft)
1/1—Sioux Nation (good to firm)
1/1—Speak In Colours (soft)
1/1—Heartache (good to firm)
4.20: ALPHA CENTUARI was the beaten 2/1 favourite when going under by a neck in last year’s ‘Albany’ here at the royal meeting. Jessica Harrington’s Mastercraftsman filly is one of three Guineas winners in the line up this time around and I have a sneaking feeling that she will come out on top today. The other classic heroines of late are passed over in favour of Sir Michael Stoute’s Frankel filly VERACIOUS whose mum Infallible finished second in this event to Lush Lashes ten years ago. I’m content to let this pair do the talking for me in the most open ‘Coronation’ for quite a while, on paper at least.
Favourite factor: The biggest priced winner during the last sixteen renewals was the 12/1 chance that scored in 2012, during which time nine market leaders have won, albeit those figures include four joint favourites. Fourteen of the last 26 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
5.00: High numbers in the draw appear to have the edge this week (as is usually the case in all honesty) up the straight mile course whereby the chance for DESERT DIAMOND (drawn) 19/23 is very much respected. Connections of AGROTERA (5) have not been so fortunate but Jamie Spencer knows the time of day at this venue and will be plotting his own route at breakfast, if he allowed such a luxury this morning! Others to consider include Ralph Beckett’s pair from my viewpoint, namely CEILIDH’S DREAM (22) and DE FIDE (3) who are listed in order of preference but once again, mainly because of their relevant stall positions.
Favourite factor: Five clear, one joint and one co favourite have obliged of late, whilst 16 of the 25 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the study period.
Record of the course winner in the Sandringham Stakes (Handicap):
5.35: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last thirteen contests, with five-year-olds claiming the other four renewals. Indeed, five-year-olds have secured the last two tricast positions and taking all the facts and stats into consideration, the trio of APPEARED, WALTON STREET AND EYNHALLOW is listed in marginal order of preference. APPEARED has to overcome a break of ten months from the track, though I cannot overlook the fact that Roger Varian’s raider runs off a two pound higher mark than when finishing second in the event twelve months ago behind one of my short listed selections who won at 20/1 before picking up a Listed prize next time out. The reserve nomination is awarded to Sir Cheuvelin who looks ridiculously priced at 66/1 in a place at the time of writing. The chance of Count Calabash is not discounted either from the other end of the market.
Favourite factor: 13 of the last 22 favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful market leaders.
Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/3—Appeared (good to firm)
1/4—Manjaam (good to firm)
1/1—Count Calabash (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.