Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 31st December 2020

An easy winner on Wednesday with Inevitable Outcome appreciating Laura Pearson's ride and claim at Wolverhampton. The horse was well backed from 6/1 into 10/3.

On to Thursday...

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Once again we have a completely free choice of races to look at on Thursday with all races open to registered free users and a competitive 6f Lingfield handicap (3.35) catches my eye, largely because there is a runner I have had my eye on for several months running in this! Let’s see what kind of chance he, and the rest of the field, have in this contest.

I’ll start with my primary horse of interest and then I’ll see if a stronger case can be made for any other runner.

Porto Ferro went into my tracker in June after a couple of strong efforts in 6f handicaps at Windsor. She ran in a race on the 22nd June and although beaten just over 4 lengths in 3rd, time has shown that to be a strong effort.

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The winner, runner up and 4th all won next time out. In fact the 4th won his next two starts after that run. It would therefore stand to reason that Porto Ferro would be capable of winning again off that mark (which was 45). She ran again over the same course and distance a week later and was 2nd on that occasion, with the winner franking the form again somewhat by finishing a close 2nd in two of his next three starts.

Now it’s worth noting that Porto Ferro is a bit of a Windsor specialist having won two of her three turf victories there and she’s also gained three of her eight runners up berths there too. However she’s run well here at Lingfield too in the past, both on their turf course and more importantly in the context of this race on the all weather course too having won and finished 2nd here.

So why hasn’t she won this season if so well handicapped? Well her next run came a month later on soft ground at Goodwood and she predictably ran poorly as she’s barely been a rival home in three attempts on soft ground. Since then she’s had five all weather runs but they’ve all come at 7f, a distance over which she had previously failed to place in seven runs. Not much was expected of her in her five recent spins over 7f with SPs of 50/1, 28/1, 100/1, 66/1 and 33/1 but she’s worked herself into decent form, finishing 3rd and 4th on her last two starts in twelve runner fields. On those final two runs she had cheekpieces back on that were worn and run well in much earlier in her career.

She’s unfortunately 3lbs out of the handicap here but that means she’ll be racing off 46, which means she’s still well handicapped on her June form. Plus she has Darragh Keenan taking off 3lbs for good measure. Her last run here, when 3rd, came off this mark and she looked very much as though she’d improve for the drop back to 6f on that occasion and the runner up has won since so everything points to her being very competitive once again off this mark.

Comeatchoo has been running well here on his last few starts, he’s probably equally effective at both 5f and 6f so there is no reason why he should necessarily improve on his latest 2nd at 5f back up to 6f. Since winning narrowly here off a mark of 54 in November he’s been held three times here and a further time at Wolverhampton giving the whiff that he’s no longer well enough handicapped to win. His two handicap wins have been off 51 and 54 and his form figures off higher marks read 5642354744445333 which seems to suggest he still needs to drop a couple of pounds from his current mark of 56. That’s not to say he can’t run well though.

Come On Girl, ridden by Geegeez sponsored David Probert, won a weak course and distance handicap off this mark in July and her best form since has possibly come over 7f. She was 7lbs out of the handicap last time out in a class 3 handicap here over 7f so a 4 length beating was no disgrace but she’s failed to place in all three runs over this distance for Mick Appleby off this sort of mark. She needed every yard of this 6f when she won here so she’ll probably need a very strong pace to figure.

Hey Ho Let's Go went close at Kempton last time out over this trip an is now 2lbs higher as a result. His only previous career win from twenty-five starts came here over the minimum trip on turf off a 4lb lower mark but he has finished 2nd off higher marks before on both turf and artificial surfaces. A repeat of that run should see him go well given the winner of the race won again easily next time but his overall profile is quite patchy so whilst he's capable, he comes with risks attached.

Aguerooo only beat one home on his last run which came over course and distance. He’s down just 1lb as a result. His last two wins came off much higher marks over course and distance but they were almost two years ago and he needs to bounce back to form here.

Catapult has the widest draw to deal with here, coming out of stall 12.

Stall 12 has the poorest PRB in handicaps over this course and distance and double figure draws offer three of the worst five PRB figures so Catapult is clearly going to be at some disadvantage here. He’s on the right kind of mark to be competitive but hasn’t had any obvious excuses on his recent runs. There was a bit more of a revival at Kempton last time out when 4th but the winner has been well beaten since.

Mont Kiara was 1.25 lengths behind Catapult that day, given a very contrasting type of ride and probably not seen to best effect given how the race panned out. Having previously been rated 95, he’s a shadow of his former self now with a rating of less than half that. He’s probably better over 7f these days but given a strong pace he could run into a place at a price. However he too is drawn very wide which is a negative.

Amnaa was the horse that won that race Catapult and Mont Kiara contested last time out but as previously mentioned, Amnaa came out and ran poorly next time out. She won that race at 40/1 and in the other five of her most recent starts she’s beaten just 10 of her 56 rivals so clearly isn’t one who puts it all in very often.

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Of the remainder here, Giovanni Tiepolo has finished nearer last than first on his three runs for a new trainer, Morning Shadow also ran poorly for a new trainer last time (and was running poorly before that), Clashaniska has been running very poorly over further and will probably do better back at sprint trips but still has to massively improve on what he’s been showing whilst Stopdworldnletmeof has a wide draw and is a 40 race maiden.

Pace could be crucial here with a few of these happy to get on with things.

Looking at the past returns by run style it’s a huge advantage to be nearer the pace in this sort of contest. Front runners have the best strike rate of any run style and they produce a huge WIN PL of 60.0! Contrast that with a WIN PL of -232.50 for hold up performers.

There should be a decent pace on here though with at least two or three capable of going forward early. That may well mean that in this contest it is those that are ridden prominently that are seen to very best effect. One of those prominent runners is badly drawn (Stopdworldnletmeof) and another one of them is extremely consistent (Amnaa).

Verdict

This may be a competitive race but it’s certainly not a good race. That comes with the territory in betting in this grade though and it’s simply a case of finding the least poorly handicapped runner that has conditions to suit. The only thing that would probably suit Porto Ferro better is to run this on fast turf at Windsor but she’s done enough around Lingfield to suggest she can transform her form here. The recent runs at 7f have helped her rediscover her form (as have the cheekpieces) and this smells of a slight ‘plot’.

Come On Girl does look better at 7f but with a strong pace on the cards and question marks over a lot of the field she could be next best. She has a 60% place strike rate in this race class which is almost twice as good as anything else in the field.

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3 replies
    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Chris

      That’s an ‘admin’ thing. It’s not published because it doesn’t really mean anything: it’s basically a composite of TS and UP (sectional upgrade).

      Matt

      Reply

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