Racing Insights, Tuesday 18/01/22

Tuesday's FREE Geegeez GOLD feature is The Shortlist : a simple (and usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. The Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form (and its odds) might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

The Shortlist for this Tuesday looks like this...

...short and hopefully sweet, but if you need/want more free stuff, how about these 'races of the day'...

  • 2.40 Exeter
  • 2.55 Newcastle
  • 4.20 Southwell

Carausius is very likely to close to even money and whilst I'm not always comfortable backing such shorties, that doesn't mean that (a) nobody likes backing at those odds and (b) there can't still be some value in the price. And as I'm not particularly keen on the 'free' races, I am going to look at Carausius to see if I think he's worth backing (or even laying) and if so, whether there's an opportunity to land another forecast.

The race is the 6.20 Southwell, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed 1m4f on standard to slow Tapeta and here's Carausius' racecard entry...

As you can see, he's backed by some good stats with 20%+ wins, A/E scores of 1.40 and upwards and IVs of greater than 1.70. In addition to those numbers, the card tells us that he's coming here on  a hat-trick and that he's a former course and distance winner who last raced 33 days ago. His trainer is shown as being in good recent form (14) and that his jockey has a good record at the venue (C1 C5), but let's do some work of our own and take a closer look.

Carausius has failed to make the frame in any of his four starts on turf, but his A/W form reads 41311, including...

  • 1311 here at Southwell
  • 411 on std to slow
  • 411 under today's jockey
  • 311 in handicaps
  • 111 here at Southwell over this trip
  • 131 as a fav
  • 2 from 2 over course and distance on the new Tapeta surface
  • 1 from 1 at Class 4

He comes here off the back of a second successive course, surface and distance win (he also won over C&D on the fibresand last year), defying a 5lb and 1 class rise in a comfortable enough win by almost three lengths. He looked like he'd more to give if needed and I'm convinced that another 6lbs is quite enough to anchor him. He's going to be a short price, but hopefully not as short as the 4/7 he was sent off at LTO.

Now we know from The Shortlist that he's likely to show up well on Instant Expert and although this isn't one of your 'free' races, I'll show the whole graphic so you can get a feel of how much better his numbers are than those of his rivals...

Similarly with the pace tab, here's the full overview...

I'd want to focus on Carausius' last two runs, because they were both over course and distance and a hold-up approach was successful. We don't have enough data from Southwell's new surface just yet, but if our runner is 2 from 2 over C&D from a hold-up position, then I'm going make an educated guess that this might be the right tactic, which would also seem to suit Soaring Star, who himself goes off the same mark as when beaten by just a neck here over course and distance last week despite being denied a clear run late on.

Summary

Quite brief and to the point today and my aim was to see if Carausius was a likely winner or not, whether an even money price tag was fair and also who could beat him or follow him home for the forecast, so here goes...

I do think he's the most likely here, but a 6lb rise obviously makes life tougher. He's currently priced at 11/10, which seems fair as he may well end up at evens or even odds on. 11/10 might not seem a value price, but if he's a even money chance in your estimations, then you've got 10% extra at 11/10. Best of the rest? Probably Soaring Star, who ran really well here last week and could well consider himself unlucky not to have won and I think he'll give the fav a run for his money. A reverse forecast could be the play here.

PS You may have noticed I didn't mention the draw. As with the pace, we don't have enough data for the new surface, but the two wins here over C&D for Carausius came from stall 2 of 6 and 9 of 12, so you could win from anywhere. Over a trip of a mile and a half, the draw tends to become less important than pace.

 

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