Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 22/03/22

Tuesday's free offering from the Geegeez Gold Toolkit is The Shortlist, a simple and usually brief report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It's a colour coded report that covers win or place stats, and like all our reports, can be viewed for both the current and the subsequent day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to the free feature, we also have our usual selection of fully functional free racecards as follows...

  • 1.26 Wetherby
  • 2.26 Exeter
  • 3.01 Exeter
  • 4.03 Clonmel

Here's how The Shortlist looks for Tuesday...

Attention quickly goes to the top two, but interest waned for me when I saw the Market Rasen race only had four runners and that Black Pirate wasn't too far ahead of another on the list, Antunes. We've three runners in the 3.46, so that's probably a tad too competitive/tough to call, leaving just Moroder on 10pts. To be honest, he's not a standout eyecatcher on those stats, but he runs in a 'free' race, so it makes sense to try and kill two birds with one stone and tackle the 3.01 Exeter, a 7-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase taking in 21 fences over a gruelling right-handed 3m7f on soft ground for a first prize of some £11,219...

Shortlist horse Moroder is the clear form pick here, having won each of his last three starts whereas Canelo is unplaced in six. Just two horses are moving class today, as Encounter A Giant drops in from Class 2 whilst Len Brennan is up from Class 4. There shouldn't be any rustiness on display either as all have raced in the past four weeks or so.

Moroder has won here over 3m and 3m½f in his last two starts, but none of the others have won here before and not one of the seven have won at this trip.

MORNING SPIRIT
Useful at Bumper/Hurdle races, making the frame in 7 of 12 starts, but has only completed one of three chase contests, falling at Aintree last October and again here at Exeter 11 days ago either side of finishing 2nd of 17 here over three miles. His jumping has been sketchy so far and he's up in trip by 7f, being asked to go 5f further than ever before and a mark of 131 doesn't help, even if...

EQUUS DREAMER
312 over hurdles and 324 over fences and has shown a tendency to not see races out. That might be because 3m is too short for him, meaning he's going to relish 3m7f, as his best run to date was over the longest he's travelled so far, so he might be a stayer in the making.

CANELO
Yard and rider are in great form (see below), but has shown very little since landing the Grade 3 Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day 2020. His last six runs have seen him fall in the Grand National and be pulled up at Newbury along with defeats of 28L, 40L, 31L and 29L.

MORODER
Improving over fences each time, finishing P6111 so far, having won a Class 4 over 3m2½f at Plumpton just before Christmas and then a Class 3 over 3m½f here at Exeter four weeks later, just holding off the 6/4 fav by half a length after a 4lb weight rise. That earned him another four pounds but didn't anchor him next/last time as he won here again. also at Class 3, getting home by 8.5 lengths over 3m on soft ground. Up another 6lbs, but he might not have stopped improving yet.

CLASSIC BEN
Was a good second of thirteen here at Exeter over a trip just ½f shorter than today almost four weeks ago, but I'm yet to be convinced whether it was a belated return to form (no win in 10 since early Feb'19) or just a one-off decent run after dropping to a career-low mark of 122. Back up 3lbs here too.

ENCOUNTER A GIANT
Three wins and a place from seven PTP contests suggests he should be able to jump, but has had just four races under Rules in almost 28 months. He unseated his rider 2 out in a 2m7½f chase at Huntingdon in early December 2019 and then won by 8 lengths over 3m1½f on heavy ground at Hereford. He then didn't reappear until five weeks ago after 787 days off and unsurprisingly needed the run and was pulled up before 3 out here over 3m. His next/last run did see him complete the race, but he was a distant 6th of 7, tailed off and beaten by 59 lengths.

LEN BRENNAN
One from six over hurdles and one from twelve over fences is less than encouraging, but his sole chase victory did come just two starts ago when 7.5 lengths clear over 3m2f at Plumpton three weeks ago. He then ran off the same mark but down in class at Southwell a fortnight ago and was only fourth of eight. Back up in class now and 7lb heavier than LTO, Len Brennan might well need a kick up the arse (one for Father Ted fans, there).

Instant Expert shows past form at going, class, course, distance and field size as well as showing the difference 9if any) between today's official rating and their last winning mark (if there is one). This feature allows us to see the form of an entire field at once like this...

Now, we expected Moroder to show up well, as he's The Shortlist horse, but that's quite incredible. Loads of red knocking around. Classic Ben has tried (and failed) more than the others and has scored poorly across the board. Len Brennan has been poor at Class 3 and only Canelo has any respectability to his numbers and he's notably lighter than his last win. That said, he's in awful form, unlike 4-timer seeking Moroder who after wins over 3m and 3m½f here at Exeter on his last two starts, so he knows how to win here and he generally runs prominently and actually made most of the running LTO as shown on the racecard pace tab...

And I'm not actually sure that pace score of 1 from two starts ago is correct. He won here over 3m that day and the race report says..."Held up in behind leaders, close up 4th, led when not fluent 10th, mistake 5 out, ridden 3 out, briefly disputed lead 2 out, good jump last, kept on, just did enough"... suggesting a score of at least 3 to me, which makes his 4-race average 3.25 and the likely leader, which is great here for those 3m type races, but what about over today's 3m7f?

Well, I've had to expand the parameters to get a workable sample, but the data suggests that hold-up horses win their fair share of races, but leading has paid off most...

...which will hopefully be great news for The Shortlist horse, Moroder.

Summary

It's very hard to get away from Moroder here and I'm not going to try to. I had it in my head that 3/1 would be a fair price and I'm happy to report that at 4.10pm, both Hills & Bet365 (the only two showing their hand) are both offering that price. They've got Equus Dreamer at similar odds and that's probably right. He's possibly the best of the rest, if only because he hasn't failed as often or as badly as the others.

 

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