Double Dutch, 18th February 2014
It was another winning day yesterday with winners from Any Given Day and Kindlelight Storm, combining to give a nice 17/1 double, thanks to the drift from 9/4 to 7/2 about the impressive looking grey Any Given Day who romped home by fifteen lengths.
Our advised bet was at 12.13/1, SP paid 11.38/1, yet BOG struck gold again with that massive 17/1 and the cherry on the icing on the cake came with a £6.60 exacta in race 1.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Any Given Day: won at 7/2 (adv 9/4)
Dolatulo: 2nd at 8/13 (adv 5/4)
(The Exacta paid £6.60)
Kindlelight Storm: won at 7/4 (adv 3/1)
Attain: u/p at 5/1 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
155 winning selections from 542 = 28.60%
53 winning bets in 144 days = 36.81%
P/L : +39.25pts (+13.82% ROI)
Some proper jumps action today, so it'd be rude not to get involved there, plus the almost obligatory A/W contest:
Favourites tend to go very well in handicaps here, but they can't all win and some doubts about his jumping allied to the feeling that the handicapper has got him now, means I'm overlooking Over My Head for this one. I prefer the look of the two just behind him in the market with a preference for Brantingham Breeze. BB ran a good second to 1/3 hotpot Tagrita at Wincanton last month at a grade higher than today's contest.
Tagrita has since been turned out to win a Listed race (last Saturday) and the way BB put eight lengths between himself and the third placed horse LTO (the 4th was another 11 lengths back!) suggests that the drop in class will tell today. 10lb claimer Richard O'Dea takes the ride again and they look good value for the 7/2 BOG on offer from Stan James / Hills.
Comical Red was second over course and distance here three weeks ago when beaten by three and a half lengths by Venetia Williams' in-form and potentially very well treated (3lbs well in and with a very good claimer on board!) Waldorf Salad. To get that close was a good effort and it could have been even better had Comical Red not pecked on landing at the last losing both ground and momentum. He's just a pound higher for that run, but Thomas Cheeseman gets to claim 7lbs as opposed to the 5lbs last time out, making an effective 1lb drop here.
Comical Red has more than a fighting chance here and can also be backed at odds of around 7/2 BOG.
Joe Fanning is the man to follow in the longer A/W races, he generally gets the tactics just right and his partnership with Mark Johnston is formidable. Mark has a good record with horses coming back from a break and we all know about the success of USA-bred horses here at Southwell. All of which points to a nice generally available 15/8 BOG bet on Travel.
However, the one to beat must be Fire In Babylon, who comes here seeking a fifth win in six races. He's 2/2 over C&D and jockey Adam Beschizza has won three times from the five times he has taken the ride on him with a runner-up finish too. He's obviously going up in weight with each run, but his victory LTO was far more comfortable than the official margin would suggest and I'm not convinced that an extra 6lbs will stop him here. he's my first choice for this one at 7/4 BOG
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Brantingham Breeze / Fire In Babylon @ 11.38/1 (7/2 & 7/4 : Stan James & Hills)
Brantingham Breeze / Travel @ 11.94/1 (7/2 & 15/8 : Stan James & Hills)
Comical Red / Fire In Babylon @ 11.38/1 (7/2 & 7/4 : Betfred)
Comical Red / Travel @ 11.94/1 (7/2 & 15/8 : Betfred & Coral)