Double Dutch, 18th March 2014
One of those "one from two days" yesterday, which got off to a great start when Lamps won by the best part of two lengths with the advised 2/1 price giving a good stake for race 2, where I felt our selections offered real value at the morning BOG odds.
Aldeburgh was backed in from 3/1 to 2/1 and Manomine, who I said seemed overpriced, was sent off at 4/1 from our original 15/2 bet! Only a neck separated the two, but there were two horses in front of them, with the winner finishing 3.25 lengths ahead of our pair.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Lamps: won at 7/4 (adv 2/1)
Maller Tree: 3rd of 4 at 5/2 (adv 11/4)
Aldeburgh: 3rd at 2/1 (adv 3/1)
Manomine: 4th at 4/1 (adv 15/2)
Results to date:
184 winning selections from 641 = 28.71%
62 winning bets in 169 days = 36.69%
P/L : +53.15pts (+15.91% ROI)
And so on to Tuesday...
Whiskey Ridge is in good order at present having won making all at Sedgefield two starts ago over today's trip on heavy ground four weeks ago. He returned to the same track and trip and despite stepping up a class and bearing a rise of 8lbs on his official rating, he still ran a very creditable third 16 days ago. The winner from that contest, has since run again, stepping up in class at Carlisle on Sunday, where he won again.
He runs off the same mark as last time and receives weight from all his rivals today and a repeat of his last effort might well be enough to land this at 9/4 BOG (Stan James).
He does like to take control of races, but he won't have it all his own way today, as Alpha One is no mug. He might well have been lucky to win at Musselburgh last time out, when gifted the victory, after the leader (who was 18 lengths clear) fell at the last, but he has been running consistently well (in the frame in 3 of his last four starts) on ground patently too soft for him. He'll prefer the firmer conditions underfoot today and looks reasonably priced at a generally available 11/4 BOG to take a race that won't actually take much to win!
This looks a pretty weak affair too, it really isn't good fayre today! Of the runners here, Day Star Lad is the most consistent and comes here in the best form. I'm happy to ignore his 7th of 11 at Kempton last time out (19 days ago), as his previous five outings were all here at Southwell and saw him return figures of 43331, culminating in a course and distance win just six weeks ago. Jacob Butterfield is one of the better riders in this field and I take him to steer Day Star Lad home at the 9/4 BOG on offer from both Ladbrokes and Stan James here.
You could then stick a pin in the rest of the card, as they're much of a muchness if truth be told. Some people will back Streethowlingmama because he's USA-bred and they go well at Southwell, but I'm going to side with Evacusafe Lady, despite her still being a maiden after 16 races (0/9 on A/W). She has actually saved her "best" runs for Southwell where her three races have resulted in finishes of 323.
She has dropped to a fairly attractive mark of 60, which must give her a chance in this Class 6 contest, for a horse who ran off 70 in a Listed contest four and a half months ago. She was, admittedly, well beaten that day and only beat one other runner home. The horse she beat by 44 lengths was a former winner at both Class 4 and Class 5 level and the fact she was even entered into a Listed event suggests her team have some hopes for her. As it is, Evacusafe Lady looks quite long at the 7/1 BOG shown by Stan James and BetVictor.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Whiskey Ridge / Day Star Lad @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : Stan James)
Whiskey Ridge / Evacusafe Lady @ 25/1 (9/4 & 7/1 : Stan James)
Alpha One / Day Star Lad @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : BetVictor)
Alpha One / Evacusafe Lady @ 29/1 (11/4 & 7/1 : BetVictor)