Double Dutch, 10th October 2015

Double Dutch, 10th October 2015

As like most of the week, Friday was another of those 1 winner from 2 days, as Devon Drum beat All For the Best by just a neck at Wolverhampton to land us a 15.42/1 forecast with their nearest challenger four lengths back.

Unfortunately the forecast was merely a consolation prize, after I'd got the Newton Abbot race all wrong!

I highlighted 3 of the 7 runners and none of them made the first three home. Just A Normal Day fared best, beaten by 2 lengths into fourth place with our other pick Morito Du Berlais a further 2.5 lengths back as the last of seven home.

For the record, the discard was Gevrey Chambertin, who was 5th and not backing that one was the only thing I got right about the race!

Friday's results were as follows:

Just A Normal Day : 4th at 9/2 (adv 10/3)
Morito Du Berlais : 7th at 7/2 (adv 11/4)
Devon Drum : WON at 7/2 (adv 4/1)
All For The Best : 2nd at 4/1 (adv 7/2)
The forecast paid £16.42 here.

Results to date:
697 winning selections from 2482 = 28.08%
222 winning bets in 644 days = 34.47%

Stakes: 1287.00pts
Returns: 1397.02pts
P/L : +110.02pts (+8.55% ROI)


Last picks of the week...

2.25 Hexham :

Scorpions Sting was sent off at 5/6 for his chasing debut, suggesting people think he's likely to be a winner in this sphere sooner or later. He was beaten by almost four lengths that day, having been outpaced towards the end of the 2m1f contest.

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In fairness, he had been one paced in his previous race, when winning over hurdles at Sedgefield over the same trip. Softer ground and an extra three furlongs could well benefit him as he looks more built stamina than speed, although this is a tougher call and the price of 9/2 BOG reflects this.

That's largely because of the presence of the 7/4 BOG Present Flight, who defied a seven month absence to win over fences at Kelso last Sunday and is turned out quickly under a penalty. He's got an extra 7lbs for that win, but based on Sunday's run that shouldn't anchor him here.

His trainer and jockey have a good record at this track and the way he jumped effortlessly last week allied to an 11 length margin of victory easing down, suggest Present Flight is the one to beat here.


2.35 Newmarket :

Ryan Moore is 17/60 (28.3% SR) for 48.7pts (+81.1% ROI) on AP O'Brien's horses this year and has an excellent chance of extending that record here with a 100/30 BOG win on Beacon Rock, who drops down a grade to be here today.

The horse was last seen at The Curragh, finishing third, beaten by a short head and a neck in a bruising renewal of the Group 2 Juddmonte Beresford Stakes. Reading the results summary of thar race suggests he may well have been very unlucky to get beaten by a couple of horses rated much higher than him, but competing on level weights as per all Group races.

The report says "...ridden and slightly hampered 2f out, not clear run 1 1/2f out, stayed on into 5th 1f out, kept on well final furlong to 3rd close home and pressed leaders..." and a smoother passage might be all Beacon Rock needs today.

But to win, he'll have to beat Ibn Malik who is the current 3/1 BOG favourite coming off the back of consecutive runner-up finishes at Group 2, the latest being a 3.5 length defeat to Emotionless at Doncaster four weeks ago. And with the latter well fancied to land the Gr 1 Dewhurst today, that result is far from a disgrace.

In fact, the third placed horse was a further seven lengths back, such was the dominance of the front pair that day. There's no Emotionless here today to contend with and the drop in grade should help Ibn Malik back to winning ways this afternoon.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Present Flight / Ibn Malik @ 9.52/1 (13/8 & 3/1 : Betfred & Totesport)
Present Flight /Beacon Rock @ 10.91/1 (7/4 & 10/3 : Paddy Power)
Scorpions Sting / Ibn Malik @ 19.63/1 (9/2 & 11/4 : BetVictor, Betfair, Coral, Ladbrokes)
Scorpions Sting / Beacon Rock @ 22.82/1 (9/2 & 10/3 : Boylesports & Seanie Mac)

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