40/1 Football Winner, Anyone?

One of the great 'perks' of this 'job', dear reader, is that I get to look at many of the systems and services that are out there. And of course, I also get to trial some of them in front of you, the 'live studio audience' (as they say in the States).

That's the case currently with both Lowlay and The Protege. And I've made it much easier for you to track the progress of the system trials now. After much mulling, I decided to add a button to the top of the page, which I've called - helpfully enough - Current System Trials. Click that link and you'll not be surprised to find a further link to all the posts for each system trial. Two clicks and you can track the daily progress.

Incidentally, currently, both are having... erm... disspiriting runs. But it's early days, and setbacks are part and parcel of any systematic approach. We'll continue to track these two for another fortnight or so, and see where they are at the end of the period.


Now then, when was the last time you backed a 40/1 winner? Actually, if you follow the blog or the excellent Festival Trends guides, you might have backed a couple lately. But when was the last time you backed a 40/1 winner on the football?

I have to say I can't remember if I've EVER done that, and it's my own fault. You see, like I say, I get a number of systems, newsletters and such like sent to me, and one of the best is a monthly letter that I receive in the post, called The Insider.

It's packed full of ante-post advice for the big sporting events, as well as some of the more novelty stuff (that Gavin seems to love, but which totally switches me off!)

Well, the point is I read it from cover to cover each month, and have followed them in on a number of occasions. But... I didn't follow their February advice to back Werder Bremen to win the UEFA Cup (or whatever its called now). They advised backing the titanic Teutonics at 40/1 ew. Fast forward three months, and next Wednesday sees the final of said cup competition with said Germans taking on dangerous Ukrainians, Shakhtar Donetsk.

If I'd taken the advice, like so many readers did, I'd be sitting on a guaranteed 20/1 payout just for reaching the final. And given that Bremen are now 10/11, I'd also have all sorts of hedging opportunities to ponder.

If.... Well, I didn't and I'm a bit annoyed.

But... I did follow The Insider's advice in the snooker (a sport I used to follow but lost track of, and now know little about), in the March issue. They said John Higgins and Shaun Murphy were the ones to be on each way at 16/1 both. Well, blow me if they didn't contest the final, meaning not just a nice 16/1 winner, but also two nice 8/1 place payouts. It's the first win I've had on snooker for yonks.

It needn't have been, because they also tipped up Higgins to win the Grand Prix event at 14's. Personally, I'll only ever think about betting on the main event in snooker these days. It's a bit like Cheltenham in that you know that all the players go there gunning for the title, and nothing else.

Just flicking through the back issues, I also note - but didn't back - the following tidy winners:

- Chester to be relegated at 6/1 (I couldn't back that because I already wanted it to happen, to save my beloved Bournemouth from the drop!)

- Barcelona to win the Champions League at 6/1 (now 8/11 or thereabouts) - I backed Lyon, d'oh!

- Ronaldo to be top Premier scorer at 12/1 (now a best priced 2/5). I backed Darren Bent - why didn't you play him, Harry?!!

Plus some novelty nonsense on the Bafta's and the Brit's, whatever they are! (I have a telly, which is for watching horse racing, football, other sport, The Simpsons and Family Guy. Nothing else!)

4 weeks' free access to Geegeez Gold

Of course, a problem with a monthly ante-post newsletter is that sometimes things change during the month, or - worse - some cracking value comes up that has gone by the time the next letter goes to press. Well, the beauty of The Insider is that they also send me an email at least once a week with other value bets to follow, like match betting on tennis or snooker or golf or football or... it goes on. I reckon that's a very cool service for keeping me and other punters informed of opportunities as they happen.

The reason I'm telling you this is because I've spoken to the editor over at Oxfordshire Press (the company that prints The Insider). I told him that I really liked his letter, and I thought some of my readers would too, and could he do anything for them.

I'd like to say he was reluctant and I had to twist his arm, practically beg him, etc., etc. But the truth is I didn't have to do any of that, because he came up with a fantastic offer that gobsmacked me.

The Insider normally costs £129 a year (about a tenner a month, and pretty reasonable at that). But the guy there said he'd be happy to offer you:

55% off (more than half)


the first issue free - no money will be taken for a month, so you can cancel at any time and pay nothing


a further three month money-back guarantee!

So, you can trial it with zero risk for one issue, then you pay less than half for the year, BUT if you don't like it any time in the following three months, you can get a full refund.

The Insider comes from the same legitimate, straight talking 'stable' as Nick Pullen's excellent Horse Racing Focus e-letter that I know so many of you enjoy.

And the reason that I've put up this gushing recommendation is predominantly because it's an offer that's hard to refuse. You have total control and get to try before you buy. Top stuff!

Here's the link - go sign up and enjoy the May edition which is just out:

...Take a look at The Insider for nothing...

I hope you enjoy it as much as I do (if you don't, you know what to do!).


And finally today, I don't know what you made of the Dante yesterday, but for me it was a bit of a damp squib. I was expecting a stellar performance from a horse, and perhaps a couple of others emerging with reputation enhanced. But they finished in a pile, and it revealed nothing about Epsom.

There's a view that says they were all good horses and the Derby could be massively competitive. And there's a view that says, discard the Dante and look instead to Sea The Stars and Fame and Glory. Honestly, I'm absolutely stumped, and will be asking Gavin to sort out the stats for me. But, actually, it strikes me as the kind of year when an outsider might win the race. Stately Home perhaps?! He runs tonight, and he's about my last serious hope ante-post (him and Rip van Winkle).

Finally finally, if you're having a punt in the Yorkshire Cup today, and you fancy Geordieland, your blushes have been spared as the mule is a non-runner. I can't think of a more capable, less willing animal in training. Given that Frankie said less than flattering things about Veracity in an interview yesterday, I'd be giving that one the swerve too.

Staying races are for slow animals, and the quickest of the slow might just be Fiulin. He'll have no problem with the ground or the trip, has had a pipe opener this season already, and would surely be two points shorter if trained by Godolphin or Stoute. At around 6/1, he looks good each way value.

Best of luck with your Friday wagers, and take a look at The Insider over the weekend.

...Take a look at The Insider for nothing...


4 weeks' free access to Geegeez Gold
12 replies
  1. Bill Hancock says:

    I have been using Mr X on a free month trial and I have found out the following:

    He sends you information by text sometimes a few minutes before the start time and unless you are sitting at the computer and unless you can access your your bookie immediately it is usually too late.

    Since the end od April he has sent 4 losing bets and 3 winning bets.

    He has made 15.48 pts since the start of 2009 in the short period I have been with MR X I am well out of pocket.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Bill

      3 winning bets out of 7? So that’s a 43% strike rate. Without knowing the odds, I can’t say if that’s good or bad, but anything above evens for the average price would see you at least level, so I assume it’s pretty good.

      And a profit since the start of 2009 as well? All good.

      Your point about the late arrival of messages sometimes is absolutely right – but if the info is good and you are at your computer, then happy days.

      Ultimately, unless you just want money put into your bank account, you have to accept ‘the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune’ sometimes, i.e. you might not always get the bet on. That’s life.

      And, like you say, it’s a free trial. :o)


  2. Sven says:

    I am really interested, but the payment option is not possible if you live in the Euro land.

    Is there any chance for PayPal or something like that?

    from the town of the titanic Teutonics.

  3. dave says:

    i agree with bill i have followed this in the past and although you will get winning tips they are mostly odds on apart from the odd ante post stuff which mostly lose.
    anyway you probably wont lose alot but at the same time you wont win much as the bets just cancel each other out and you fall around evens all the time
    hope this makes sense

  4. Arthur Judge says:

    Well Matt I have decided that it could be ayear for the outsiders in the derby and have taken your advice and taken Stately Home at 29 on betfair for the win and 7.2 for the place at £20 on each, so if it wins or even places I owe you several large Malt whiskeys.

    Incidentely I have backed the above at Hamilton tonight for the win got 2.9 so I have £50 riding on a nice night out tomorrow if it wins, and I can always tell her to blame you if it goes down.


  5. Daz says:

    I also used to subscribe to The Insider and basically had a similar experience as Dave – just about breaking even. Also, most of the bets where long term such as betting on a football team to win the title or promotion which is no problem at all if they are strong or value bets but having money tied up long term on poor bets and either breaking even or losing is my idea of an hobby and not serious trading. The one thing I will see is that they seem to put a lot of effort in and these guys are definitely not scamsters, just a shame the bets are not too profitable or I would still be a subscriber.

  6. roddo says:

    I notice frp tipped Daaweitza today as it had its optimum profile.This was if the ground stayed quick,which it didnt and it became a non runner.
    What i cant understand is how a horse can have its optimum profile if its ran at a track where its record reads 9 runs,7unplaced,2placed and NO Wins.
    I want to try and stay positive and yes its still early days,but i havent the confidence in the selections and the way they are found.I hope i am proved wrong.I managed to swerve Amanda Carter as no way was the going good like the official verdict would have you believe.
    Cheers Roddo

  7. Cliff Wood says:

    I have been using Mr X for some years now and I took the advice for the Werder Bremen bet and I got on at 40/1. One of the best services out there.

    Cheers Cliff

  8. pg says:

    surely having the month trial and the discount makes it worth a try thanks for the tip Matt

  9. will says:

    I have trialed The insider and also another 1 of their services Bet Bank Alerts.I found that in both services the bets where to short priced.By the time you get bets on even if they where good odds when given ,prices had fallen by the time you went to put the bets on.

  10. Mark A says:

    I have used several of their services over the last 18 months and have kept a record of every bet placed – I am approximately 50 points down currently – agree with some of the posts – they do tip the occasional long odds tip (I am on Werder Bremen) but most of their tips are between .66 & .91 so with a 50% strike rate you are always down.
    The Bet Bank Alerts service seems to be the most profitable – they send out weekly emails saying what has won and lost but don’t mention the long term losses (only the wins) – this is what tends to add to the rather high loss rate.

    I am currently not using their tips but keeping a record of how they do

  11. redphoenix says:

    I have subscribed with Mr X for a few of his services, and I totally agree with the guys – unless you can keep a rigid eye on the timing, you will not make much money at all, even betting with the higher level stakes. I tried his bets with a stop at a winner on a point basis, and that I needed to treble the stakes when the price was below evens. Whichever way you look at it, if you wish to make money, then this is a no go, as you will not leave much in your account by the end of the year.

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