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In previous articles we have covered the Efficient Market Hypothesis and the Wisdom of the Crowd, and how these theories help us identify opportunities that have a positive Expected Value (EV+), writes Russell Clarke. Our task as punters is to try and limit our individual bets to those that have an EV+. We can do […]
It is perhaps the greatest paradox in the investment world that many consistently profitable money managers have a large percentage of losing clients, writes Russell Clarke. I recently saw the records of a very successful US Hedge Fund, that showed over 40% of their lifetime client base had actually lost money while investing with the […]
In part 6 of his outstanding series, Russell Clarke looks at the bigger picture through the prism of short-term hiccups. Russell’s previous articles can be found here. IT’S ALL ABOUT THE ODDS Value betting as an accepted modus operandi is a relatively recent concept in the mainstream betting world. The Pricewise column in the Racing […]
The fifth part of this series goes hand in glove with the preceding episode about bookmaker concessions. To review the other previous articles, go here. Last time we looked at a range of bookmaker concessions, and when they offered positive expected value, writes Russell Clarke. This week the focus is very much on each way […]
In this fourth article (previous instalments here), I am going to look at concessions that are offered from time to time by the “soft” bookmakers; and how we can assess if these concessions or offers are worthwhile, writes Russell Clarke. The definition of “worthwhile” is exactly equal to “profitable” and, whilst we cannot know if […]
Part 3 of this series looks at different types of bookmaker. Earlier episodes can be viewed here. The terms “Sharps” and “Softs” refer to bookmakers that operate very different business models, writes Russell Clarke. Sharp bookmakers operate a low margin/high turnover model and Soft bookmakers operate a high margin/low turnover model. Examples of Sharp bookmakers […]
Part 1 of this series can be found here. I have deliberately kept mathematical ‘proof’ and academic rigour of the theories of Wisdom Of Crowds and the related Efficient Market Hypothesis out of this article, writes Russell Clarke. Those who are interested can easily research further their efficacy online. For what it’s worth, I believe both […]
Success in betting is typically approached with the primary, and sometimes exclusive, goal of selecting winners, writes Russell Clarke. Whilst undoubtedly important, such an approach rather puts the cart before the horse (pardon the pun). Understanding the betting marketplace, and some of the basic maths, is the cornerstone of any viable strategy. This can then […]
My Oberon just edged out San Andreas in a thrilling finish to the All-Weather Mile Championships Conditions Stakes at Newcastle. Trained by William Haggas and partnered by Tom Marquand, My Oberon was last seen finishing sixth in the Dubai Turf last month and ultimately just about made his class tell as the 13-8 favourite. However, […]
Blue Lord outclassed his two rivals to make it two from two over fences in the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Chase at Naas. Runner-up to Bob Olinger in the Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle on this card 12 months ago, the seven-year-old went on to be placed in two other Grade Ones at Leopardstown […]
Gordon Elliott will take on A Plus Tard in the Savills Chase at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival with both Delta Work and Galvin. The two Elliott-trained runners both ran at Down Royal last time out behind Frodon, with Galvin losing little in defeat when seeing his winning sequence of six come to an end by […]
It is hard to think of many small businesses that have thrived rather than floundered during the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, but Powys racehorse trainer Sheila Lewis has done exactly that. Lewis juggles running her small racing stable with owning and managing her own salon, The Beauty Mill, both located near the same Welsh minster town […]
3 Part Challenge STEP 3: The Right Bet All righty! We’ve found the best races to play in Step 1 (click here to review that), and we’ve sorted our contenders from the rest of the field (see this link for that step). Now it’s time to think about the optimal bet for the opinions we have. […]
Well, what a year this has been. It was borderline impossible to imagine the gathering gloom as we turned the page from 2019 to a new decade and what we surely all believed would be a fresh chapter full of hope and opportunity. For those of us lucky enough to have never had to live […]
You made it! This is the third and final part of the Three Week Challenge. In this concluding part, we’re going to look at bet selection. We’ve already chosen the right races on which to focus in part one; and then in the middle section we’ve shortlisted our race runners into value contenders and overbets/also […]
