Interestingly Paul, Qaffral was one of my “Less Sinister” contenders last night, but the price fall has caused me to omit him today. I did however have a closer look at the race and in particular the 1M all aged handicaps run at Newcastle since they started running on the A/W. Only 8 such races, so probably too small a sample to be totally definitive, but I was struck by one interesting statistic. From the 89 runners so far just 1 winner from 60 contenders ran LTO at the 1M distance or longer. 28 of these were under 10/1 at SP. However, 7 of the 8 winners came from just 29 contenders that ran a shorter distance LTO. Today just 4 qualifiers ran shorter LTO – Breathless (50/1), Captain Peaky (33/1), Talent Scout (10/1) & Mon Beau Visage (6/1).

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