Shouband Naas 2.35 just winning illustrates the potential value of taking an early position. I got matched at 15.50 before I posted which was very close to the industry prices at the time. At any point the price can go two ways – out or in. If it drifts out in price the reality is that its probability of winning the race decreases based on BFSP probabilities/actual odds. If it contracts in price as this did (8.14 BFSP) then the probability of it winning actually increases making the taken price far more attractive in terms of its likelihood of actually winning. Subsequently I now worry less about a horse drifting in price from the position that I’ve taken. Hope that makes sense?

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