Day 44 Results
0 Winners – 23.00 at BFSP after 5% comm.
Oct: 63/502 races, 63/1261 selections -284.96 at BFSP
Running total: 118/915 races, 118/2279 selections. Profit/Loss -63.79 at BFSP
I intend to cease listing these at the end of the month. I don’t believe that this type of backing is what anyone on here really wants. None of us are idiots and whilst there are definately”paper” profits if using higher obtained prices one simply can’t avoid the fact that the Strike rates will be low and subsequently long losing runs/high daily losses will occur. I’ve actually managed a couple of hundred points profit by beating BFSP, but I would personally be uncomfortable quoting any figures that couldn’t be guaranteed by anyone considering following these. With a SR of just 5% on selections the average BFSP has to be in excess of 21. If the SR was just 3% than the average BFSP would need to be 34+. Calculate the SR on any selection process and you can then calculate the minimum BFSP average that you need to obtain. It’s not rocket science and it’s far harder to achieve a 18 BF match on a 12/1 selection than it is to obtain a 50 on a 33/1 chance.
Take every single 8+ runner race in Flat maidens, Flat Handicaps, Handicap Hurdles, Handicap Chases and NHF races in the UK since 2013 and you have 23,193 races. Horses priced at 16/1 or larger won 2603 of these – 11.22% of all these races. Back every 118,668 horses that were 16/1 or greater and you lose a little over 10p for every £1 invested at BFSP. However back every one of them but quote a matched price in excess of 10 points above BFSP and you’ll generate 291 points profit per month. That’s without ignoring the better courses/race types etc. On average you’ll be backing 83 horses per day.
So I will say that the principle of backing outsiders and using the inherent betfair value and massive price variances available within betfair can be a profitable exercise. However, the selectivity options and the potential personal input required prevents this type of backing being suitable for what I would call a “system”. A system has by definition to produce the same selections and results/profits for everyone. So as a methodology it has merits borne out by the fact that at a number of courses and in certain race types backing every single horse over a certain price threshold has historically generated profits at BFSP. I’ve certainly noticed and identified some particular trends and will probably start separate threads focusing on these particular angles. There are probably 3/4 areas that I’m keen on focusing on and it will be interesting to see how these develop over a longer period in isolation. In all probability the average number of bets will reduce dramatically which is what I feel suits most people.
Monday Day 45
1.50: Fairy Lock, Vivardia, Harvest Moon
3.25: Devious Spirits
4.30: Blynx, Einstein
5.00: Teetotal, Questo, Spirit of Zebedee
5.30: Rock Canyon, Gonindaethat, Letbygonesbeicons
3.05: Solway Sam, See the Legend
4.10: Las Tunai, Berkshire Downs
4.40: Schnabel, Ka Masesco, Milella Suite
3.15: God Willing, Fox Trotter
3.45: Crafty Madam, Angelica Eve
5.20: Baltic Prince, Art Echo, Strictly Art, Uncle Dermot