Jim, my apologies for the lateness, but frankly I forgot!! Anyway as time is pressing I’ll just post a number of selections that are based on the statistical and trends at Dundalk.
5.30: SUFOOF & KING TOUT the two against the field by virtue of inexperienced horses and unraced especially not performing well (0/103). Both Halford (7/30) and Prendegast (2/10) perform well historically in these race types. Al Batal would need to break the unraced 0/103 trend to prevail but a good trainer nevertheless in these race types (2/11).
6.00: From 26 nursery handicaps just 2 winners prevailed above 11/1. A Oliver (3/18), Mrs Hartington (2/11) an A O Brien (2/12) outperform all other trainers. Runners that raced at 6F LTO have a poor 0/31 record at this today’s 7F distance. A Oliver has a 2/10 record at this distance so his two horses BREATH OF TRUTH and NORMANS WELL are both serious contenders. BEN GUNN’s profile is also positive together with CLEONA.
6.30: Just 1/103 winners above 11/1 at this distance/race type. The favourite has won 9/15 of these 1M maidens. Of the top 3 in the market I would avoid Poppit as she has a poor profile leaving MASSIF CENTRAL & FIRST PREMIO as the better shorter priced options. Each way options and probably better value are KHUDHA or SLANEY STREET. The only two outsiders I could make a case for are Mr Shelby and Time Dee.
7.00: My five against the field: PLOUGH BOY, STRAIT OF ZANZIBAR, RUMMAGING, EXCELLI, POETIC CHOICE
7.30: My favourite race!. In the UK there have been 73 3 YO female only Group 3/2 or listed races. 70 of these races have been won by horses having no more than 6 career starts. Only two qualifiers here: LINA DE VEGA & CIRIN TOINNE every other horse has run more than 6 times so I couldn’t look elsewhere.
8.00: My four value trend horses: PRINCESS TAMAY – TRENCHTOWN ROCK – BARBEL – SEEKING TRUTH
8.30: Two value trend horses: MAGIA DEL CORSO – SPIRIT BE WITH YOU
9.00: Finally: INVINCIBLE LIA – BEST DESTINATION – POWER GRID
Hope you have a great evening and a profitable one to boot!!