#2746125

maverick99
Participant

Hi Guys, the experience of this thread over past few weeks has led me to seek a different alternative strategy. The fundamental problem with backing longer priced selections is always going to be the fact that low Strike Rates means long losing runs. You simply can’t avoid this but I’m firmly of the opinion that whilst long losing runs can be acceptable for many no one really wants 50 or 100+ selections a day. My previous selections were based around 4 year course statistics and course trends which could in hindsight be unsafe statistically. The issue with higher priced horses is that at individual courses the numbers involved may be too small to be statistically genuine. For example taking Flat maidens the SR of horses above 28/1 winning is a paltry 0.7% or one winner for every 143 selections. So having a course that shows a record of 0/120 doesn’t mean a 28/1+ won’t win as statistically there are still 23 further selections to run before the statistical average is reached. Sure you can back all or most of them and over time gain a winner or two but you’re still faced with those long losing runs and the potential of losing 50 – 100 points a day. Longer priced horses simply win at random, so in order to identify a true statistical edge you really need to use larger collective data/number of events that makes the results hopefully more statistically significant. This is probably why my previous results with Group/Listed races were the two race types that generated I believe more success. They weren’t course related statistics, but race type statistical analysis.

So I’ve taken the normal race types of Flat maidens, Flat Hcaps, Hcap Hurdles, Hcap Chases and NHF races as well as my existing Group/Listed races and adopted a similar statistical methodology. Backing every single 16/1+ in all of these races and the SR is 2.30% or 1 winner for every 43 contenders. What I’ve come up with is a selective process which from historical evidence improves the SR of 16/1+ runners to 4.56% or a winner every 22 selections. Now I’ve no way of knowing if the past will be repeated, as I’m always wary of the level of backfitting that may have occurred, but nevertheless I’ll start posting these here from tomorrow and see what develops. The good news is that the number of live selections will be manageable and I doubt that there will be more than 200 monthly selections – probably far fewer. Obviously with fewer selections this will mean that losing runs may accumulate and be measured over days, but I feel that this is a more acceptable and normal expectation and crucially manageable from a staking perspective. I’ll measure the results at BFSP in my usual manner for clarity and fairness and start tomorrow at the beginning of the month. All my historical data is based on 16/1+ SPs so when evaluated (normally the night before) I’ve no way of knowing in advance what price a horse may end up at SP. Subsequently there will always be a degree of flexibility on my part in case a horse drifts out to the required price and conversely contracts as is the case with Thomond today. I’ve checked and the criteria used for selection is still profitable for horses that end up in the 11/1 – 14/1 price bracket.

Finally for those interested there are 4 qualifiers today which are:

Wex 2.15: Be My Vinnie
Galway 2.25: If Not For You, Thomond
Plump 4.10: Ron Waverley

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