#2746406

maverick99
Participant

Thursday 3rd Nov Day 3 Results

Muss
4.05: Wemyss Point (20/1) Lost 2nd 7/1
Thurles
4.10: Meelinnineonesix (80/1) Lost 40/1, Chosen Hour (33/1) Lost 3rd 12/1, Ocean Explorer (33/1) Lost 10/1
Newbury
1.30: Gallic Destiny (50/1) Lost 25/1
4.15: My Boy James (14/1) Lost 16/1, Polydora (14/1) Lost 14/1
MRasen:
1.05: Camachoice (33/1) Lost 28/1
Chelmsford:
5.15: I Don’t Believe It (25/1) Lost 16/1
7.30: Captain Relevation (33/1 Lost 20/1), Fleckerl (20/1) NR

Running Total 0/23 after 3 day – -23.00 points at BFSP

Before I list today’s contenders a brief analysis of horses above 16/1 and strike rates. Taking all 8R+ Flat handicaps, Flat maidens, HCap Chases, HCap Hurdles and NHF races we find since Jan 2012 15,373 of these races with 166,076 total runners. Horses above 16/1 won 1385 of these races from 69,226 contenders. This means that we can expect a 16/1 horse winning 9% of such races from 2% of the runners priced above 16/1. On average there are just 40 of these running each day – more during the summer months. Put another way if you back every single one of these horses (and knew in advance which horses would actually end up at 16/1+) you would historically expect a winner every 11 races (9% race SR) and a winner every 50 bets placed (2% runner SR). Back every one and manage a matched price 7 points greater than BFSP and you’ll make a small profit. With these I’m being far more selective with the hopeful end result of the historical Strike Rate of between 4-5% being repeated. That’s a winner (I hope) every 20-25 selections, so it’s a patient approach, albeit with the harsh reality that 20+ losers will however be common. We soldier on with these hopefuls:

Friday 4th November Day 4

Fontwell
1.00: Milly Malone (20/1), Aaly (14/1)
Warwick
2.35: Angus Glens (20/1)
Hexham
2.55: Lochalsh (33/1)
3.30: Moscow Menace (14/1), Captain Sharpe (16/1)
4.00: Dalmo (33/1), Sultana Belle (14/1)
Newcastle
3.50: Juste Pour Nous (14/1), L’Inganno Felice (14/1)
7.20: Harmonic Wave (50/1)