#2747129

maverick99
Participant

Day 6 Results: 4/16 + 12.88 Pts at BFSP less 5% Comm (Melting Due 11.50, Churchtown Champ 2.38, Assassinate 8.49, Beardwood 7.61)

Running total 22/125 +53.77 pts at BFSP after 5% Comm

Thanks Future and to answer your question regarding how long before one can be confident – the only true answer is probably a year to take account of the different times of year etc. That said from a statistical perspective as soon as a 300 selection mark is reached a broad level of confidence can be measured based on a plus or minus of 3% that the historic results (in terms of SR) will be repeated all things being equal such as the selection process. Frankly with horseracing there is always an element of randomness which simply can’t always be explained statistically. It’s like a tipster who in the previous 12 months generates a 15% SR on 1000 selections. That won’t sadly mean that in the following year that the 15% will be repeated. Also remember that 37 points of the above profits have been generated by a single horse winning at 25/1. Take that away and the profits don’t look as good, but would still equate to a 13% ROI which wouldn’t actually be bad in light of the total number of selections. Personally I do back these for interest albeit at low stakes. I would suggest a 150 point bank with a point on each selection and ratchet up the stake as and when the bank increases if you’re so inclined. Even at a low £2 stake 54 points over just 6 days isn’t to be sniffed?

Wednesday Day 7

Warwick
12.30: Man From Mars (28/1)
1.00: Hollow Bay (8/1), Lily of The Moor (10/1)
1.35: Atlanta Ablaze (16/1)
2.05: Pemba (6/1)
3.15: Leith Hill Legasi (10/1), Fountains Cider (16/1)

Chepstow
1.55: Verygoodverygood (2/1)
2.25: Financial Climate (12/1), Dr Robin (14/1)
3.00: Top and Drop (9/2), Gold Bonnie Raine (8/1)
3.35: Laser Hawk (9/2), Wilton Milan (5/1)
4.05: Bugsy Malone (10/1), Bramble Brook (11/4)

Fairyhouse
12.10: Aussie Reigns (2/1)
12.40: Asthuma (8/11), Mistheatre (33/1)
2.15: Twilight Shadow (14/1)

Kempton
5.10: Macs Kyllachy (66/1), Mukallaf (33/1)
5.40: Espirit De Corps (3/1), Master Archer (10/1)
6.10: Sussex Ranger (66/1)
7.40: Hell Yeah (16/1)

Your first 30 days for just £1