#2747706

maverick99
Participant

What many people also fail to consider is the relationship between the betting bank required (easily identified from the SR) and the Return on Capital (ROC). Take the original sinister outsiders thread with a SR I suspect of 2-3% and claimed profits of 200-300 points per month. You will need a 600 – 800 point betting bank to be safe. Equate that to money and at Betfair’s £2 minimum that’s a £1600 betting bank. If 200 points monthly profit is indeed generated that’s £400 profit using a £1600 bank or a 25% ROC. Compare this with a system SR of 15% where a 150 point bank is needed. So £1600 equates to a £10.67 stake. To generate the same £400 profit you now only need a 37.49 point monthly profit staking £10.67 to equal any low SR methodology’s profits. You can’t escape the fact that the lower the Strike rate of any selection process than the bigger the betting bank that will be needed and therefore lower unit stakes in comparison with a higher strike rate. Finding that balance is important as well as the psychological impacts of dealing with any long losing runs and subsequent losses. My calculated guess is that with these the very short priced selections (>11/4) wash their face. The mid priced selections (i.e. 3/1 – 14/1) generate a small profit, but the cream is produced by the 20% of bigger priced selections.