#2747793

maverick99
Participant

Richard in answer to your questions. This thread was borne out of a simple idea whereby the selections meet fundamental historic criteria regardless of price. These are my base selections. I then use a simple filter to reduce these down to a more manageable number. Subsequently more than one horse in a race may meet these criteria and become selected. As I’m not able to historically check the results of these from any of the databases I use I’m listing the selections as they appear in real time. So at the moment I’m data gathering and number crunching with the data that I obtain. After just 16 days it’s fair to say that statistically it’s extremely difficult to gauge where improvements may be possible and statistically justified. Statistically speaking I always like to see at least 300 events before I interpret those events. So with multiple race selections I need 300 of such multiple selection races before I even look at the data. However I’ve never been unduly worried about dutching regardless of the prices and with a near 19% selection SR and a 25% winning race SR psychologically all winners also help. We know that 45% of evens chances will win their race and as the odds shorten so will the probability of winning. What this often means is that by backing these regardless of the price quite often we end up close to even on the race as opposed to being 1 or 2 or 3 points down.Remember also that the SR is hugely important with regard to the betting bank that you need. As I mentioned previously a lower strike rate inevitably means a longer losing run which equals a bigger betting bank. Often far better numerically in terms of size of betting bank and your Return on Capital to have a 15% SR with many shorter priced selections that a 5-10% SR. The way I see it is that any individual race doesn’t really matter. You need to look at the races as statistical events of which there will be thousands over a period of time. So the question becomes not would I or you do if there was only one race but what may be better over a series of a thousand races. The same answer regarding data gathering applies to your weekday/weekend and Graded courses/graded races question. There has only been 2 weekends so far so it’s simply far too early to gauge any worthwhile trends. Hope that helps?