Sat Day 24 Results 3/57 -41.67 at BFSP less 5% comm (Dashing Oscar 5.22, Altior 1.36, Lamb or Cod 9.29)
Sun Day 25 Results 3/24 -5.17 at BFSP less 5% comm (Landofhopeandglory 2.06, Airlie Beach 5.10, One For Hocky 12.29)
Running total 131/729 +109.61 pts at BFSP after 5% Comm
It’s a strange old game this racing! The past 6 days has seen a loss of 78.82 points over 199 selections. That equates to a 52% loss of my inflated 150 point bank. Statistically I would expect a long losing run of between 30-35 over the 729 selections together with a potential bad patch of double that at some point, so a 50 – 60 point short term alignment isn’t necessarily out of the ordinary. I’m also aware that on Saturday I tweaked in a small way my normal selection process which may have skewed the data. I do know that this had the result of adding a further 12 -15 losing selections. Lesson learnt so now back to the original selection process.
To date my selection spreadsheet is showing 1255 selections from 574 races. 199 winners have been identified for a strike rate of 15.85% and a profit at Early prices/BOG of 138 points – a more than reasonable ROI of 11.00% without any filters. The return at BFSP is + 234 before BF commission is deducted. (I ought to add that this includes a 200 BFSP winner on Saturday!)
The filtered selections which are the ones posted here show 729 selections from 500 races. 131 winners equates to a SR of 17.97% and a profit at Early prices/BOG of 139 points – a ROI of 19.06%. The return at BFSP is as quoted above, namely 109.61 points for a ROI of 15.04%.
Subsequently it can be seen that the filter I use appears to be working as the filtered selections have generated as much profit as the base selections in total have at EP/BOG. However that said, on Saturday 31 base selections were discarded that resulted in 6 winners including Robin Royale a winner at 200 BFSP. Yesterday 6 were filtered out including Coney Island a 20/1 early price winner and today 9 selections have been filtered out including to my disgust Little Miss Daisy BFSP 47.10 and Gold Opera a 20/1 early price! The challenge is to see if any logical and simple way to trap more winners and/or focus on a specific range of selections that may be more profitable in the long term.
As a rule I’m a firm believer in a high volume selection process, which I know isn’t everyone’s cup of tea. My reasons for this are simple and highly logical. Take a 150 point bank that shows a 10% ROI. If you have 100 selections a month (say 3 a day) you generate 15 points profit per month. If you have 35 selections a day and your ROI remains at 10% you generate c.100 points profit a month. The overall Strike rate determines the size of bank you will need, not the number of selections. Combine this with compounding and it’s a potential winning combination.
Moving on, the past few days losses are concerning. I need to see if this is a normal realignment or a sign of fundamental system flaws. Sadly only time will determine this and as this is hopefully a long term project it’s a case of more patience and discipline and let’s see what occurs the next 20 days. It’s too easy to forget that this hasn’t been going yet for a full month! Overall the past 6 days has seen 302 base selections resulting in 42 winners for a 13.91% SR. This is 2% less than the total average Strike rate. This reduced SR has been replicated in the filtered selections (27 wins from 199 selections = 13.57% SR). Seasonal fluctuations in any system or methodology are common which is why in truth a full years results is the only real way of determining the long term viability of any system. A 2-3% deviation from the overall Strike rate over a 300 selection period can be expected. The overall SR so far is good and the number of selections coming second also points to a period where the run of the green maybe just isn’t happening. Finally, to place this all into perspective my initial 150 point bank is still showing a 70%+ growth after 25 days, which is still above my expectations for a high volume strategy, so I can’t be too negative.
P.s. The above data exclude today’s results which are 4/27 base selections and 2/18 filtered selections. So another 12 point loss today on recorded selections!