No selections for me today Sunchu.
Every idea that I have worked on with regard to Horse Racing, produces a mass of second placed horses. For example, the last two days I have had one winner but five seconds, from eight races in my Pollination choices.This is typical. The problem is, it is impossible to stop the ‘Sods Law’ unexpected/known unknown, coming along and doing you. Yesterday, Malaysian Boleh gets beaten at Lingfield by 25/1 shot Black Caeser whose last three runs were – U/R at Plumpton (Twice!), and before that, 14/15 on the flat at Newbury beaten 14 lengths. It’s previous form on the All Weather read 0/1/6. It then chooses yesterday to come and clobber MB which otherwise, would have won easily.
Then, you have the change of tactics merchants. Why on earth Paul Nicholls allowed Capitaine to be ridden like it was at Sandown in the Tolworth Hurdle yesterday is beyond me. It may have been beaten by a better horse anyway, but Capitaine’s trump card is it’s jumping and instead of being allowed to bowl along and jump them silly, it is held up off the pace and makes a mistake at the second last which puts it out of the race. That was due to it having to pop a hurdle to keep it for a challenge after the last. I doubt he will be ridden like that next time.
On Friday, I backed Sakhra to finish in the first four at Wolverhampton. It usually chuggs along in midfield, then runs on into fourth place. On this occasion, Egan has it on the outside of the leader giving it no cover. Complete change of tactics, It fades into fifth!
Other than getting bets on, the biggest obstacle we punters have is the percentage of a race that we cannot account for such as the Black Caeser result. Most of the users of this site are experienced, skilled ‘handicappers’ to coin a phrase, that are prepared to work hard at this game. What I have described above, in my experience, is why this game is so difficult, not the taking on of opposition that you can accurately assess, it is the unseen Dark Matter that is real enemy.