Reply To: Go On 3

#2751762

PaulAR
Member

OK, I am quite happy with the selection process and will hand it over in full here.

Select which media you will use to get the 3rd favourite in the race. It doesn’t matter what you use, be it the D Mirror, D Mail or Racing Post, but you need to be consistent with it.

The 1st thing to do is eliminate non qualifying races.

CLASS– The main fayre comes in class 3-6. I do look at class 1 & 2, as it does produce winners from those classes, but I’m a bit more selective in those. 3 – 6 is fine in general. I wouldn’t touch class 7 with a massive stick! Also, watch out for horses that are being stepped up in class. I’ve been caught out by that recently, when the horse was upped from Cl4 to Cl2! I didn’t check properly. Going up 1 CL is usually OK, as long as the form dictates it should be able to live with the step up.

FIELD SIZE– I concentrate on fields of 8-12 runners. I will look at 13+ runner fields in case there have been withdrawals bringing field size into parameters. I also look at 7 runner fields and occasionally include those if there is value to be found, but generally, I stick with 8-12.

MAIDENS– I will discard maidens in most cases. However, if 60-70% of the field have had 2 or more runs, and the prospect looks strong at the right price, I will include it, tho’ this is a rare event.

JOINT OR CO 3rd FAV’S. There are occasionally very competitive races, when there may be 2 or three horses, quoted as joint/co 3rd fav. My tendancy is to omit the race if there are 3, selecting the horse with the most promising form in the case of just joint 3rd fav’s. Any races when the are a glut of horses at joint/co 2nd fav and joint/co 3rd fav gets eliminated.

Following the above will usually get rid of around 30-35% of the cards straight away. That takes no more than 2-3 minutes. The next step is to make your long list. That is, note down the initial clutch of 3rd fav’s from your media BETTING FORECAST (my personal choice is the Racing Post). Some of these can be discounted almost immediately.
Depending on the number of meetings, you should initially have around 12-16 selections (days like today will leave you with a blank sheet of paper!). Now we need to reduce that down. I like to have 2-4 and occasionally 6, but that is a personal choice. How many you choose will be personal to you.

This is the main focus of your study now, and what you choose and how you choose is down to you. But I will relate here, what I take into consideration when looking for my final selections.
DISTANCE– This method finds winners at all distances, even 2 mile stayers’ (I have a 50% strike rate at this distance in the past 6 weeks, 2 from 4). However, the most winners (or places, if that’s how you play) come in the 7-10 furlong range.
DRAW– I don’t need to tell you about this. Some courses have a bigger bias than others, just be aware of it.
PACE– Not a big fan of hold up, but these can be effective in middle distance races. If the horse I have on my list is effective as a hold up runner, I tend only to follow it up if there are 8-10 runners. The problem with any more in the field, is the danger of it being boxed in. The same goes for front runners, and how many will be vying for the lead from the stalls. If my selection has a good pace score but is going from a wide draw, I don’t eliminate it if I feel it can get a good position to attack from the start. The only reason I will eliminate it, is if there are another couple of front runners better drawn and with a similar pace profile.
TRAINER/JOCKEY FORM– All of these boys and girls go through ups and downs throughout the season. As a general rule, I like to see at least a 10% score over the previous 30 days. However, if just 1 of those is below that figure, eg jky form is 7% and tnr is doing well at 20%, as long as the horses form is good enough, I have kept them in. Jky/Tnr both need each other, and all it may take is just 1 run to snap a sequence.
HORSE FORM– Obviously goes without saying, but I don’t let the fact that a horse hasn’t won in a while put me off, initially. It could have been unlucky in running in previous races, a victim of tactical races, or poorly drawn. Take a look and see if the recent form is improving too. Does it run well on the conditions?
The above is everything you can find in IE and full form. All this leaves me to do is wish you good luck to you, if you choose to give it a go.
By the way, the racing is at best POO today, so I’m keeping my powder dry.

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