Reply To: And now for something completely different!



Wednesday Day 74 Results 10/50 +39.82 at BFSP less 5% comm (Dangerous Ends 13.12, Ice Cold Champs 1.57, Allee Bleue 9.60, Bois De Bologne 2.25, Bells n Banjos 10.37, Full Irish 5.80, Twin Point 8.10, Runasami River 10.50, Little Kingdom 14.50, Burtonwood 17.48)

Running total 468/2773 +279.54 pts at BFSP after 5% Comm

Hi Jimmy, 1% of the bank updating after each race/selection – wow you’ve certainly utilising the power of compounding to the nth degree! I started this with a 150 point bank and based on the long term strike rate of 16.87% this should in statistical theory be sufficient. That being said, because of the dramatic peaks and troughs in terms of daily results I would suggest that a 200 point starting bank is preferable as we have had a historic 60% bank reduction with a 150 point bank.. But as yesterday demonstrates a 40 point profit using a 150 point bank equates to a healthy 40% bank gain so you can understand how the peaks and troughs occur especially as this is a high volume strategy. Nevertheless with compounding after each bank high, my initial 150 point bank on paper at BFSP prices has now reached over 900 points after my 75 days, slightly below it’s all time high of 1048 points. My actual figures however are greater than this, because I take early positions to try and match/exceed the early prices I list. My spreadsheet tells me that this works better as opposed to just taking BFSP with EP/BOG prices generating 25% more profits than relying on BFSP alone. Betfair prices ebb and flo especially with the larger priced selections so use this to your advantage, but it’s a skill in itself to beat BFSP and the only guidance I can give is that the listed EP/BOG prices are historically prices to match or exceed.

I personally keep things very simple with a single point placed on each selection increasing only when the bank increases from its previous high. I’m sure that there are many other staking plans that may better my simple level stakes, but if you want to avail yourself of the potential better value from EP/BOG or higher BF prices you can’t back race to race, but have to place all your bets early using your betting bank. I wouldn’t personally use a x percent of the bank each day as this would skew the results as a day with more selections would have less staked on each selection than a day with fewer selections.A simple 0.5 point of a 100 point bank would be my preferred option and if compounding raise your stakes as and when the bank reaches a new high at the end of each day to reflect your 0.5point stake from a 100 point bank.

My primary reason for listing the results at BFSP was to guarantee the transparency in results/profits that sadly isn’t always replicated elsewhere. Every man and his dog at worse will be able to at least replicate the above figures, and I suspect and hope that BFSP is being used as a default setting for any followers as opposed to a regular occurrence. Anyone risking their hard earned should have a clear indication of 1) What the actual winning strike rate of the selections are and 2) What the actual profits are at either BFSP or EP/BOG. You need the clear answers to both of these in order to ascertain if you personally will be able to fund with an adequate betting bank the selections and as importantly will you be able to replicate the profits being claimed. If you can then beat BFSP or EP then you’re not wholly reliant on the best prices always being matched, but being able to do so will undoubtedly increase the profits that you generate.

Personally I simply don’t believe that it’s fair or proper to quote results/profits on a racing forum without a clear understanding of how they have been generated and the rules under which they have been obtained, which is why I list the selections and results/profits/losses strictly at BFSP. If I wanted this thread to look better I could easily manipulate the figures to include higher asked matched prices or the highest in play matched prices, but in the real world you have to make a decision before the result is known, not after the result. So with betfair you may ask for a higher price – it doesn’t get matched so you either take BFSP or keep it in play in running? You can’t do both which is why as a simple default the only correct way to measure results has to be BFSP, unless of course you are wholly prepared to then accept and accurately list as losers the winners that never get matched in running at your requested higher price. One shouldn’t simply pick and choose which option you choose to record after the event depending on the best result! Anyway rant over and onto today’s hopefuls:

1.20: Good Thyne Tara (4/9) Pahaska (15/2)
1.50: Berry Des Aulmes (7/1) Moroval (7/2) So Sorry Sarah (20/1)
2.25: Battleford (8/1) Turcagua (3/1)
3.00: Coole Craft (16/1)
3.35: Upazo (7/1)

1.25: Sir Anthony Brown (6/4) Midnight Maestro (5/2)
2.00: Astre De La Cour (7/2) Theatre Flame (5/1)
2.35: Grace Tara (5/2) Hitherjaqueslady (4/6)
3.10: Space Oddity (6/1) Copain De Classe (9/4) McKenzies Friend (28/1) Sirop De Menthe (14/1)
3.45: Bennys Mist (10/1) Vic De Touzaine (5/1) Flaming Charmer (5/1)
4.15: Royal Rebellion (11/4)
4.45: Victarion (7/1) Dark Invader (6/1)

1.35: Court Membel (7/2) First Du Charmul (8/1) Generous Day (28/1)
2.10: Eaton Rock (11/8)
2.45: Pinnacle Peter (12/1) The Artful Cobbler (8/1)
3.20: Cascaye (9/1) Socksy (11/2)
3.55: Magical Man (8/1) Cheat the Cheater (11/2)
4.25: Thatchers Gold (14/1) Alla Svelta (40/1) Present Times (7/2)

1.45: Harpers Ruby (20/1) Charlie Lad (14/1) Injun River (12/1)
2.55: My Renaissance (13/8) McVicar (20/1)
4.05: Alpha Tauri (10/3)
4.35: Monsieur Jimmy (15/2) Call Out Loud (8/1)

5.50: Rebel State (10/1) Russian Reward (12/1) Magic City (4/1)
6.25: Ravens Quest (9/1) Kings Thistle (6/1) Heads You Win (18/1)
7.00: Doctor Parkes (16/1) Welease Brian (8/1) You’re Cool (11/2)
7.30: Midtech Star (10/1) Tetradrachm (9/2)
8.00: Bastia (2/1)
8.30: Multi Quest (11/1) Whaleweigh Station (6/4) Camdora (11/2)
9.00: Mezyan (10/1) Toy Theatre (10/1)

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