Reply To: Sinister Horses for Sinister Courses

#2752009

Ray Thompson
Participant

Basic rules appear to offer themselves up all the time. I SUGGEST those rules should be followed for all three disciplines (Turf Flat, All-Weather and National Hunt, all UK & Ireland):
1 Have an Exchange account, preferably with Betfair. Other exchanges are available, having the same one keeps us all on the same page.

2 Handicap outsiders only with a minimum field at the off of eight runners. This isn’t only about possible place betting, it just turns out to be the optimal minimum for profit making

3 Maiden outsiders at specifically successful courses according to the stats from previous years/months. Maiden outsiders are consistently profitable at certain venues, others being losers throughout. Some are better in certain months, but I’m happy to highlight these when appropriate.

4 A maximum per race according to field size. A 20/1 winner isn’t an outsider in a 25-runner field. Don’t lose cash in the long run by backing too many contenders. I suggest approximately one third of the runners are likely competitors in the following table:
8-10 runners, up to 3 picks
11-13, max 4 picks
14-16 max 5 picks
17+ 6 runners max

5 Profits from backing outsiders in races with an odds-on runner are borderline at best so no bets in races with an odds-on favourite.

Keep a balance of simple yet flexible. Simple yet flexible means just that. I do the complex work with the stats and time spent collating MY selections so that everyone else can either follow me (the “blind stats” approach) or use their own take on the info. It’s VERY IMPORTANT for everyone to understand that the statistics only have the results to inform them. We don’t know if something opened at a huge price then won (or lost) at a backed-in single figure SP; and vice versa, did some of the big winners drift out from an originally ignored lowly number? So these figures are a GUIDE to what is possible.

I update and slightly tweak things as we go to improve the performance of the method, this can be seen in the results since the October 2015 start:

Profits for Sinister Horses: 01/10/15 to 31/01/17

Oct +808.95 points
Nov +735.10 pts
Dec +663.78
Jan +190.75
Feb +301.50
Mar +959.00
Apr +1,452.15
May +1,752.95
Jun +1,591.85
Jul +986.20
Aug +1,632.27
Sep +196.55
Oct +458.20
Nov +666.30
Dec+102.55
Jan+786.4
Ongoing + 13,181 points

My 5-year stats for every UK&Ireland course are updated quarterly (was monthly but too much work to indicate the slow changes in seasons). Clearly from the above, Mar to Aug inclusive are the best months, but EVERY month has been profitable so far.

Industry prices converted to Betfair prices. Find your contenders from minimum 18/1 upwards ISP then ask for or take the approximate BP according to this table:
ISP 18/1 = 28+ BSP
20/1 = 32+
22/1 = 36+
25/1 = 42+
28/1 = 50+
33/1 = 70+
40/1 = 80+
50/1 = 100+
66/1 = 150+
80/1 = 200+
100/1=200+
etc.

We have had 25/1s returned at 500+ on Betfair and many more similar results. Conversely, a huge outsider in the a.m. can be shortened in by the afternoon when the big players’ cash comes for it.

Enough for now. Hope that helps.

Ray
Feel free to offer suggestions but DO NOT tell me how to do my job 🙂

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