#2754233

Richard
Participant

Sunchu, On HRB look at the Stalls Analyser for Southwell where you can look at the history from each year forward from 1997. Probably fairest to look at say the last ten years as well, but interesting to choose a few different starting points.

Look at the data for One Mile, then click on – Handicaps/Colour Coding and where it says wins, click that button and look at win percentages and also profit and loss. You will be stunned by how awful stall one performs generally, but particularly in races of 10 plus runners. You are looking at a range of 1-3% depending on the number of runners for stall one which you would think would be the best place to be. Then look at stall eight in particular over the long term and stall seven more recently. These are showing more like mid teen percentages with stall eight very profitable going back in time, although stall seven seems to be the new eight in recent years.
The reason in my opinion, is that they have two tractors that go round and round the track, rolling the surface. The width of each roller only covers about two thirds of the width of the track. This means that there is an overlap in the centre of the course which becomes more compressed than the edges, and therefore the ‘going’ becomes faster in the middle.

It is always worth looking closely at the early races there to see if you can glean a bias which you can utilise in the later ones.

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