#2767423

dpilgrim
Participant

hey Mav,

Thanks for all your efforts here.

I’m interested in considering sweet spots within the system based on my staking around these. Obviously we all know staking patterns are just as important as picking value bets (because we tend to be among the sharper people in the betting fraternity – or at least we like to think so in any case!).

I’ve tended to bet the selections “to win” a certain profit on each. Level stakes on all selections didn’t seem a suitable staking pattern when some are 66/1 and others are odds on. Similarly it’s not really possible to apply something like Kelly or a variant on these as we don’t have a view of the true odds.

As I’ve progressed however, I’ve become reasonablly convinced that the short odds (sub 2/1) tend to underperform, while the mid range (7/1-16/1 ish) seem to perform much better.

I’m trying to refine my staking around this and I no longer beleive betting to return similar amounts per bet is a suitable plan as it overstakes the short odds which aren’t doing so well. Equally level stakes under bets some aspects and overstake others.

Do you have a full view of all selections staked, and the early price achieved + BFSP on some sort of excel sheet? would be really interested to take a look and do some analysis if you do, and share it back with you naturally.

Let me know if this is somehting you’d consider. I have all my histroy of prices taken, but not the associated BFSP

Dave

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