Reply To: Hotform class droppers

#2767488

dpilgrim
Participant

So Mav / Roger

I did the first run through on this. First I’ll give the caveats……. I’ve not been on here for long, and neither am I able to follow every day. Here’s the assumptions / weaknesses:

– 1650 Bets Samples, all within the past three months. The larger data set may display different trends.
– I don’t have the BFSP, so this research is based around my “Matched Price” which is typically shortly after your post. You may be a bit quicker to the money. I’m hoping to add BF SP to this in the long run.

Here are the findings:
I grouped the data into roughly similar sized groups, although at the short end I only went up to 6/4 to provide a view of how the real shorties are performing. This meant a smaller than ideal sample group.

Expected Wins
based on the Betfair matched price giving an assumed “correct” probability, we can see the Expected Wins versus Actual Wins in each group. A bigger “wins” than “expected wins” indicates the system performing strongly in that area:

Odds Expected Wins Actual Wins Selections
<2.5 20.9 24 43
2.51 – 4.0 43.3 41 145
4.01 – 5.5 43.0 45 206
5.51 – 7.0 30.5 24 191
7.01 – 8.5 21.0 22 163
8.51 – 10.0 20.7 20 191
10.01 – 14.0 16.8 17 202
14.01 – 18.0 9.3 8 149
18.01 – 25.0 6.9 12 146
26.01 – 35.0 3.6 6 103
35.01+ 2.2 2 111
Grand Total 218.1 221 1650

This is showing a definite bias towards the longer priced selections (over 10/1) performing best.

I then looked at three different systems for backing these, based on the actual results.
1. Level Stakes betting (assumed £10 win bet on each selection)
2. Bet to win a given profit (£100 profit on each selection) – this ignores multple runners in a single race
3. Bet to return a set return (£100 return on each selection).

The overall profits from each of these selections would have been:
Staking System 1 – Total Stake £16500, Total Profit = £862 = 5.2%
Staking System 2 – Total Stakes = £28400, Total Profit = £339 = 1.2%
Staking System 3 – Total Stakes = £21800, Total Profit = £286 = 1.3%

This would confirm the theory that a level stakes system is likely to yield a strong profit, and it is important not to understake the bigger priced selections. Of course you need a bigger bank to sustain this staking system.

I have saved the file I used for this so can rerun monthly.

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