Regarding speed ratings, I think they are best used in conjunction with the Pace tab.
Here’s why: if a race is fast run, it will take a fast time to win it. So far, so bleedin’ obvious. However, if a race is slowly run, any horse could nick it from the front.
Speed + Pace + Form Profile = GOLD (Geegeez Gold)
That’s why these components are included 🙂
Here’s an example. Say a horse has a top speed figure 15 points above the next horse in the race. But he’s a hold up horse, and further, there’s no pace in today’s race. Now say the race is on heavy ground, and he’s been stuffed in all four starts on heavy.
The speed figure says bet. Everything else says no bet.
Here’s another example. Two horses are joint top rated, five clear of the next rating. Horse A has a great Instant Expert fit, and is a prominent racer in a field that has two or three that like to get on with it. He is 6/1.
Horse B has an all right Instant Expert fit, and is a hold up horse. He is 20/1.
How do you bet? All other things being equal – remember that contrast is king (http://www.geegeez.co.uk/why-contrast-is-king-when-seeking-good-bets/) – I’d bet the 6/1 win, and the 20/1 win, though not to the same stake.
I know I’m on two relatively quick horses in a race that should be run quickly, and that both are suited – to some degree at least – by race conditions.
This is the basis of a rudimentary composite rating, and it’s something I’d like to introduce at some point. But time constraints mean it won’t be in the near future. Still, it might be something you’d like to play around with (and it might not!!!)