Yeah Paul, still lots to learn for me too, if you are on early with a tipster selection before the price drops then great, before market catches up. I have moved away from tipster services, preferring to develop my own systems and strategies to betting. As Matt says (in his blog), a good betting strategy is looking where the rest of market isn’t looking, too easy to look at recent form that inevitably leads to the favourite as the most likely selection. trouble is they are often very low prices and I like to look for value bets.
An example of a system I developed is one based on Cloth Number, it has a 27% strike rate and a ROI of 102%, it generate up to 5 selections per day, and is focussed on certain NH Chases only. Using a neural network approach what I found was the best day of the week to use this system was Sunday, so it only produces selection on a Sunday. So far it has produced 302 point profit in two years. For example since 8 March this year there have been 24 selections with 6 winners one was at 55/1 (Carli King 1620 War) on betfair.
Selections for today are:
15:05,Perth,Wind Of Hope,
16:10,Perth,Run With The Wind
Run With the Wind looks very interesting to me at a price, I don’t back them blindly but do a bit more analysis. A lot of enjoyment is actually in doing the analysis, takes the longest part of time. To analyse every race would be just about impossible so I use systems and tactics to highlight races worth looking at. I don’t just like to get selections emailed me by tipster, I like to do it myself, but takes a lot of perseverance. Some approaches don’t work out, so I trial them first like the 441NH System I am trailing for low stakes.
Best of luck today Paul, and I really enjoy reading your comments and as you say learning from everyone else in this forum.