I posted a similar post to this on the main Stat of The Day comments, but the moderation of the post may be delaying its publication, so perhaps this is a more suitable place to post This isn’t meant as a criticism of Stat of The Day – far from it – but a general question that I believe merits some debate. Today’s SOTD was published last night at the price of 11/4. This was seemingly quickly removed to the extent that this morning when I logged on the best price available was 2/1 from PP. In fact from checking Oddschecker it appears that whatever time one was up and about this morning the best price for the selection was 9/4. Now as someone who tries to adhere to a simple principle that you don’t actually just back a horse, but you back a horse at a specific price the simple question is “Should any SOTD selection be backed if the suggested price simply isn’t available?” After all the SOTD results are based around the suggested price and the great profitability of SOTD is geared around the recommended odds taken?
Could it also be that on a Sunday evening with not much betting activity actually taking place that such an early published selection is more likely to ring alarm bells from the bookmakers that I’m sure all probably follow the SOTD selections, so the SOTD selection stands out more and subsequently it won’t take a great deal of betting activity for the bookmakers to shorten the price? Whereas publishing the selection on the morning won’t necessarily have such a dramatic impact. Now the reduction in price may not just be SOTD dependent, but as I’m led to believe that generally 9/4 is considered the minimum value price criteria for any SOTD selection would today’s selection actually been considered a selection if the available price was in fact only 2/1?
I’d certainly be interested in people’s views and especially Chris if he would care to comment. This isn’t meant as a whinge as I’m perfectly happy to take the rough with the smooth, but at 2/1 it won’t be a bet for me, for purely value/mathematical/statistical reasons and I sincerely hope the horse duly wins.