Thanks finky1, most helpful, I have been considering the differences introduced by FCSP, ISP & BSP. My take is that betting to ISP/FCSP would show a consistent loss over time, which is what Ray described in his earlier post. I did a ‘snap-shot’ test for a 7 day period based on a system with the following parameters: UK Handicaps; Not top 1 or 2 in weights or bottom weight; Not Class 1; Odds range 17.0 to 34.0 FCSP:
This meant I excluded the two winners from yesterday finky1 as their FCSP were below 17.0. Betting to ISP of between 15.0 and 34.0 What I go was:
Number of bets = 175
Staked @ £2 per bet = £350
Win Return based on 5 wins @ 34.0, 34.0, 21.0, 19.0, 21.0 = £248
P&L = -£102
I would accept that placing the bets on Betfair would have given higher odds, and the £102 loss, would likely have shown a modest profit deepening on the BSP odds obtained.
My take is only way to have chance of profit, whether you make your original selections beaded on FCSP or ISP is to then bet to BSP to maximise the odds obtained. So as long as your original selections were made with odds ranges 15.0 to 34.0, and even if BSP is above 34.0 then this still a bet. in this way BSP does not determine whether to place a bet or not, BSP is only about maximising the odds obtained.
So to sumarise:
Make selection based on FCSP or ISP of odds between 15.0 and 34.0
Bet to BSP to get better odds
However there is word of caution, expect a lot of loosing bets, from my small one week snap-shop it showed a S/R of 3%
I then ran a system based solely on BSP with odds range 15.0 to 43.0 with Rays parameters and then added some more in order to reduce the number of bets and improve the S/R. I did 2015 and got the following stats:
Number of Selections = 307
Number of winners = 28
Number of looser = 279
P/L @ 1 point per bet = 271
S/R = 9%
For 2015 @ £2 level stake:
Outlay = £614
Loss = £558
Return = £1100
P/L = £542
However with Rays original parameters the system showed a small profit, but not one to get excited about.
The bets have to placed near the off with this BSP system, as odds have to be in range 15.0 to 43.0, and they fluctuate over the day.
The longest loosing run so far was 51 bets with this system. with about 5 bets per day, the last winner in this system was on 01.08.2015 (Frightened Rabbit @ 22.0) and then 18.07.2015 (Etienne Gerard @ 18.5 BSP), and the one before was on 17.07.2015 (Poyle Vinnie @ 29.0), no wins yesterday from the 6 selections.
Ray your system no doubt will find winners, but does it produce a constant profit over time? Having a 33/1 winner is nice, but having 60 or 70 loosing bets is not so nice. The system I produced does have to exclude some winners in order to reduce the number of losers, of course there is no guarantee that the past equals the future so this system may not continue to show a profit.
I’ll run the system later today and put up the selections here so you can compare them to yours.