#315845

Tigris
Participant

For a system based on UK Flat Handicaps excluding the top two weights – According to my records there were two winners yesterday, Sergeant Pink 29.93 & Call it on 29.44 with 41 bets (note I cannot exclude the bottom weight fr0m my system calculator, so may be some bottom weights in there) so last night I estimate:

41 bets @ £2 = £82
Return = £120
P&L = £36

I have just run some number for 2015, and the following is what I got for UK Flat Handicaps excluding the top two weights:

total bets = 3978
Wins = 175
Losers = 3803
P&L = -200 Points (assuming 1 point per bet)

This is to BSP using odds range of 15.0 to 43.0, if you take out the bottom weights that may help or hinder the bottom line, I could not remove them from my calculator.

2014 showed a slight loss of -38 points.

So my calculations suggest it is not overall profitable even at BSP, even if you took out the bottom weights I suspect it would not go into profit, as some of these may actually have been winners anyway.

The estimate is about 30 bets per day and a SR of 4%, so expect a lot of losers. To put on 30 bets a day is quite a task, every day!

I did a bit more digging and found that ages 3,4 & 5 showed the most potential profit, for 2015 the stats are for odds 15 to 43 BSP, excluding the top two weights:

Age/Runs/Wins/Loser/SR/PL
3/160/13/147/8.12/95
4/103/9/94/8.74/105
5/55/7/48/12.73/74

This doubles the SR and puts the system into profit of a total of 274 points for 2015 to date, 2014 showed a similar pattern.

I feel there is a lot more refining that can be done to create a profitable system, so my conclusion at this stage Ray is that your system is not profitable over the long term, with some further refining I think it could be worth teasing out, so for me I would not be backing 30 horses a day in such an ‘unrefined’ system given the stats I have come up with. Assuming of course Ray I have applied your method to my analysis….

Really enjoying the analysis and thank you for setting this thread off…..

Would welcome your comments Ray, and of course challenges to my analysis most welcome.

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