#316184

Tigris
Participant

Ray, I know you are looking at Flat Turf Maidens, tricky it looks, I just did a little analysis for 2015 for Maidens and looks very hairy stuff. At BSP prices between 15 and 200, I got 2131 bets with 63 wins, and 2068 losers, SR = 2.96 and P&L = 87 points.

So would seem profit is possible, but the downside was the losing runs, biggest was 145, quite a long run!

I attempted to do some filtering and found that, the odds range seems optimum, with Class 4 & 5 maximising profit, also Good to Soft was not profitable.

Also found that Fillies and Geldings had the worse SR and thus profit, so taking these out, made quite a difference.

With one or two more tweaks I got to a SR of 4.5%, so betting on Maidens is still going to be one of lots and lots of losers, I got it down to about 5 bets per day, system gave out 18:25,Hayd,Colour Me Happy today which came second but not quite good enough.

I got system profit for 2015 to 300 points with 25 wins out 521 bets, so pretty low SR.

It would seem to be the case with any system so far we have looked at that betting on outsiders involves long loosing runs and few winners, but since they offer bigger prices, the chance of profit is favourable, with nerves of steel maybe just maybe it could work.

Last winner in system was Lorelina on 30 July at 40.8 BSP, 19 loosing bets since then…

Will post the selections for tomorrow if there are any….

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