Rhombus never really got going at Goodwood yesterday, and the current wellbeing of his yard continues to give cause for concern as the horses are simply not firing.
This would appear to be a suitable time to explain my methods in a little more detail given that Dawaa (won 7-2) got away earlier in the day.
Basically I shortlist 3 horses a day (this part of my method is systematic), before analysing the runners to establish my ‘best of the day’.
Backing the short listed horses blindly would incur a loss, but the maths say that, even allowing for a 50% margin of error, I should be able to achieve a 40% strike rate atcan average price of 2-1 for an ROI of 20% in the long term.
Yesterday’s shortlist comprised of Dawaa (Goodwood 3.15) which won at 7-2, Rhombus (Goodwood 3.45) and Farkle Minkus (Hamilton 4.30).
Dawaa and Farkle Minkus were unexposed juveniles racing under different circumstances under which they won. Rhombus was the more proven of the three, despite the yard appearing to be out of form, which is why I put him up as a selection. This is the problem with unexposed horses like Dawaa. Just how much benefit of the doubt do you give them when they’re racing on a different type of track, on differnt going, and in a better race?
Today’s shortlist comprises of Tregaro (Southwell c2.10), Brave Spartacus (Southwell 4.10) and Walden Prince ( Worcester 5.40).
Tregaro has never been at his best around Southwell, Brave Sparticus is essentially having a prep race according to connections as he’s being aimed at a valuable Market Rasen chase later in the month, whereas Walden Prince blundered away his chance over C&D last time out. However, prior to that, Walden Prince had looked very progressive, and although it’s been two years since the horse has won on a galloping track on rain softened ground, that is partly due to the horse being off the track for a year with a tendon injury. I think he’s the best of the three, and consequently my besy of the day…
Worcester 5.40 WALDEN PRINCE