#317755

Ray Thompson
Participant

Bukle was a nice winner yesterday at 32, 30.4 after comm. Another profitable day.

Hi, Terry, welcome aboard. You’ll only have to skim the earlier posts to see what we set out to attain, and the great achievement posted yesterday!

Handicaps for September last year are taking me awhile to collate, but I’m targeting weight/position on race card, Age, Class, Going, Distance and a nod towards stall bias. If you Google “draw bias at (name of track)” you’ll find charts by distance, going (only G-GS, but that’s okay) and number of runners, all the things you guys suggested we incorporate into the search for winners. The only other thing, number of contenders (16/1 to 66/1 for Maidens, 16/1 to 40/1 Handicaps), I can fall back on my main area of NHS outsiders to comment on. By looking at ALL contenders, firstly the Sinister/Dexter rule is a good place to start with handicaps. Where the race isn’t a straight 5,6,7 or 8 furlongs the curve of the track, left or right, can save you backing against the contender’s preference. That, and a serious look at the trainer’s ability in handicaps, especially with first time out horses. Jockey/trainer combinations, the draw, your favourite colour if you must! (Please no). They should allow you to whittle away the real no-hopers and find a maxim of three for races with up to around 10-12 runners, and no more than FIVE for the real big fields of around 20+.

The first week of September 2014 tells me there were 6 winners at 20/1, 16/1, 33/1, 18/1, 20/1 and 20/1 again. I should point out here that one of the criteria for selections is the ISP, the Industry’s book as compiled by their so-called experts. Please don’t even consider trying to find a system based on Exchange (Betfair) prices. It can’t be done, simply because of the rapid fluctuations online, where you’re backing/laying against other punters. Betfair only gains a 5% commission from winning bets and the odds you see are there via automatic alteration with every bet/lay made. And THAT is why you can get such MASSIVE prices with them.

Other things of note from the first week are:
A. 2 wins from 2yos, 1 win each from 3,4,5 and 6+ year olds.
B. 2 wins from Class 3, 1 from C4 and 3 from C5/6. There are more C5/6 than 1,2,3 and 4 combined.
C. 3 wins on GS, 2 on GF and just 1 on Good. There are more races on Good going than GF and GS combined.
D. 1 win over 5f, 3 at 6f and 2 at 10f

That’s it for now. Tell me what you think. Author Douglas Adams said that the number 42 is the answer to everything. I hope today he’s right because that’s how many selections I’m on (with Betfair, of course!)

Have fun!

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