I seem to have lost yet another post. My ‘puter absolutely froze yesterday and I had to switch the whole kit and caboodle off. Seems okay today but it’s definitely going into the computer hospital soon as poss for a good clean out. Anyway, to business…
Doncaster and St Leger Fest is great fun; I used to go regularly back when I was (a) young and sprightly and (b) working and living in the Nor’east.
Donny’s a tricky track but the stats are there nevertheless.
First of all, forget any kind of system we’ve developed over the last few weeks, as it simply does not happen like this at Sunny Donny. It’s a bit like one of the infinite parallel worlds described in mathematical detail recently by a number of scientists of the Quantum Mechanics ilk. However, some things – as with all parallel worlds – are the same as ours, particularly in the mathematics arena. In this case, the draw is very important, especially when it comes to the straight mile vs the round mile (and longer):
Let’s list ’em all for simplicity:
5 and 6f – high draw favoured and horses with a liking for middle to up with the pace running.
7f High draw and middle-to-hold-up horses.
8f Straight – High draw and particularly on the rail with middle to hold-up being most successful.
8f Round – High draw again and although it’s a left hander there’s little or no bias to the inside (low) draw.
12f+ lead-to-middle runners do best and weirdly, from the high draw (Stand side) and middle.
The big priced winners at Legerfest pop in ANY kind of race, but seldom those with a 6/5 or less favourite. Depending on the going, there can be quite a lot of odds-on shots running, like last year when it was Good to Soft generally. I’ve cast an eye over the last five years here to see if we can still make a profit from outsiders and offer you this:
2010 Day 1 (Wed) 25/1 in a nursery and 22/1 in a conditions Stakes. Only one contender (16/1 to 33/1) in the first and two in the second. Both at 40+ available via Betfair.
Day 3 (Fri) 20/1 (50BSP!) in a handicap (7 contenders)
Day 4 (Sat) 16/1 (25) in a Group 2 Stakes (6 contenders)
Add another 24 contenders to the 16 above for ALL races except those containing an odds-on to 6/5 fave and that’s 40 points laid out for a return of 81 (148.25 post-comm BSP)
2011 Day 2. 20/1 (30). (11 bets/contenders)
Day 3. 16/1 (28) and 16/1 (22). (9 bets)
Add 60 to the 20 contenders to cover EVERY race (not o/o-6/5) and your 80 points outlay returned a mere 55 (minus 25 🙁 but a 3.6 profit (83.60) post-comm.
2012 Day 1. 16/1 (24) (only bet) and 20/1 (32) (6 bets)
Day 2. 22/1 (34) (8 bets) and 16/1 (28) (7 bets)
Day 4. 20/1 (28) (10 bets) and 16/1 (26) (one bet)
105 bets to cover every contending race returned 116 (+11) and 163.40 (+58.40 post comm)
2013 Day 2. a non-contending 100/1 winner (475+) boo-hoo!
Day 3. 18/1 (28) (1 bet)
Day 4. 16/1 (28) 11 bets and 20/1 (32) (only contender)
78 bets to cover all racing returned 57 (minus 21) and 83.60 after comm (plus 5.6)
2014 Day 1. 25/1 (38) (11 bets)
Day 4. 16/1 (24) (5 bets)
124 bets to cover every qualifying race returned 43 (minus 81) and 58.90 (-61.5)
2013 and 2014 were Good to Soft, 2012 GF then Good, 2011 and 2010 Good. This year it’s Good again and the first race has just banged in a 25/1 winner!
Have fun, hope the going stays good and remember NOT to back the contenders that don’t qualify via the draw bias or any with faves odds-on, 11/10 or 6/5