Hi Steve, quite right about yesterday’s draw bias not working at all, but it IS a bias rather than a rule or law. You’ll see in the earlier posts that my original was similar to your findings, and that I mentioned the other day the importance of the betting forecast – in my case with The Racing Post – for selections rather than trying to base anything on BSP alone.
My post yesterday said my minimum win from 22 bets would suffice, and it did indeed with one N/R and Mr Lupton winning at a mere 10/1. My 24.7 after tax and stake return left me a small profit of 3.7 points. I missed Realtra in my haste to “save money”, but as we’ve observed, the really big money is found during the early weeks of the system, with a huge bias to bigger (50+) Betfair prices in Maidens (last year 50, 50,130,50,120,65,180,140,50,75,200,70,55,70,150,120,75,50,50,200,95,60,60,50, 150,200,100,50,620,80,63,60,430,260,150,60,152,55,55,65,75,60) than Handicaps.
My 28th July post showed the difference between filtered and unfiltered during a specific period. Overall, a few mini-systems or (ir)regularities can be used for filters, one I mentioned last month being that all winners except two at the Curragh last year were either 16/1 or 20/1.
Please stick with us Steve, we need more people like yourself with an eye for good stats and a clear understanding of what I’m trying to achieve here.
Today, 23 bets from me, most races at Donny, Handicaps at Sandown and Chester and three biggies in Salisbury’s 7.30 Maiden.
Remember to have fun!