G’day Andy and George (Were you WHAM!???). The field criteria I use is initially that the number of horses at 16/1+ should be around a third if there are lots of runners. If there are more than a third (e.g. one race today has 16 runners and ten of them are 16+) then look at the draw bias for that course and distance and apply accordingly. Search Draw Bias At … (Name of course)… and options will appear. They can be very useful in discounting the disadvantaged runners. If you’ve still got more than the third needed, then use your judgement/knowledge on which to include. I tend towards past and recent performance (Form) obviously checking out the sinister/dexter suitability of horse and course, although I know a lot of you prefer Trainer stats or trainer/jockey combos. Whichever suits you is the way to go.
AW races are all capable of producing big-priced winners. Irish courses often show HUGE differences in the SP criterion price and the actual Betfair payout with 20s coughing up 100, 16s paying 50 and so on.
I use my old familiar sites, particularly Racing Post site and Timeform (via Betfair) for detailed cards, form and results. I’ve begun integrating Geegeez cards and info recently as it’s been developing and it really is evolving into a superior species.
Tissue prices at the bottom of the race card are first port of call for me along with developing bookie prices alongside each runner. If, say, a runner that was 16/1 slips to 14/1 with the industry, I will still back the selection if Betfair still has 20+ about it. In all the tables above this post I’ve included winners that were 16+ISP until dropping to 14s or 12s just before or at the off.
I had only two winners yesterday: Tylery Wonder at Curragh and Lil Sophella at Muss, both handicaps. A tiny post-comm profit of £13.40. Hoping to do better today with 81 bets (£162) laid out.