FGR – The Methodology
For those of you interested, I thought I’d briefly touch on the methods that I use ahead of my upcoming NH project.
The methodology is basically split into 4 sections, thus…
1. FGR Entry System
The entry system pinpoints those races most likely to prove productive in terms of indicating winners and is based on criteria I hold which shows in what areas my rankings are at their most accurate. Basically I put a line through any handicap race with more than 10 runners, and any non-handicap with more than 12. I also eliminate any race where more than one third of the field are making their seasonal debuts.
2. FGR Pattern Horses
All horses backed fall into 1 of 3 distinctive patterns (unimaginatively called Pattern 1, Pattern 2 and Pattern 3) and ensures that all horses backed share similar winning-finding attributes.
3. FGR Rankings
Given that it’s not unusual for a half dozen or so horses to obtain my pattern status, I then use my rankings to sort the wheat from the chaff, with the rankings indicating those horses most likely to run to their current rating. I then consult Oddschecker, eliminating any horse quoted at odds-on and any horse available at 11-2 or more. This ensures that I’m concentrating on the most productive price range in terms of indicating winners.
4. FGR Shortlist
The above 3 steps are then used to produce my shortlists which are based on the class factor. I always start at the top of the class scale and work my way down. This step ensures that I’m most likely to be concentrating on those horses capable of reproducing their best, most recent form.
That’s the methodology in a nutshell. Anyone wishing to join me should set aside a bank of at least 40 pts. All bets are 1 pt win singles and the average per winner is about 2-1.
Never be put off from backing the short priced ones. Anyone backing 40% winners at an average price of 2-1 will achieve exactly the same ROI as someone backing 30% winners at 3-1, in this case 20%. Obviously there will be plenty of even-money and 6-4 shots to achieve that 2-1 average price. There is something of a myth surrounding so-called value bets to the extent that many punters (and tipsters for that matter) fall into the trap of backing prices and not horses.
Anyway, that’s enough waffling for one post. If you want to come on board you’re more than welcome. The project starts on Friday.