Ray Thompson

Richard, sorry about the doggy delay, but the update/rules you asked for require a bit of history first. About six years ago, having discovered a way to make regular profits on jumps racing in UK and Ireland, I began to keep a record of selections (usually only one horse per race, but very occasionally two) and results. Gradually I was able to whittle down contenders by studying those results and comparing them with each other to find the optimum type of horse, race, condition, class, etc. Aware that outsiders win a higher percentage of jumps racing (I think it was 38% in 2009/10) than they statistically should, and the apparent fact that long losing runs appeared to be inevitable, I keenly dug into the stats and broke down every relevant constituent part of what a horserace was perceived to be. My maths degree and ten years as a statistician in the RAF helped (as, surprisingly, did my BPsych!). The “records” I kept were at first a whole mess of scribbles in some tatty school books like the ones you wrote your homework in. I quickly realised that it needed to be more clear and concise, so to this end I bought some hardback lined Red ‘n’ Blacks in which to daily write date, course (including if it was right- or left-handed), race time and type (chase or hurdle), class, selection, going (F,GF,G,GS,S,H), EP (early industry price) BP (Betfair price asked for or taken), then result. I arranged comparison wall charts which paired age of horse with distance of race, class with going, etc. All the while things were getting better and better, going from strength to strength, then Matt gave me a run with my “tortoise and hare” selections which in turn evolved into a private “Placed to win” site with a limited subscriber list. Then I had thoughts about the flat season….

Tea break! Back in 30 mins… 😀

….and got my cuppa.

Looking at the Summer flat turf season results over the last six years, I immediately saw the outsider potential. I’d also thought about a blog/forum at Geegeez to give my experience an outing while I’m still a young brat, and with Matt’s blessing I served up “Sinister horses…” on my 70th birthday four months ago. I asked for interested system developers to come together to devise a winning system for the summer flat turf season, and with some helpful comments and ideas from you guys, and even the welcome support of something new and profitable and FREE, we’ve come up with some great info, stats, trends, ideas which still need some positive filters, further research and embellishment to optimise our findings. While researching the flat turf handicap results I noticed that Maidens and all-weather tracks were also potential money-spinners.

These are exciting times, and together we’ll make big profits; for now though it’s identify the targets initially by early Industry (bookies) odds. Those odds should be a minimum of 16/1. We’re not hard and fast on the upper price, but we are aware that sometimes a bookies’ 100/1 chance DOES win at up to and including 1,000 on Betfair. We know that obscure 50/1+ shots pay hundreds to one on Betfair. So you might lose your £2 minimum stake many, many times when backing things at 1,000, but as long as that £2,000 (or 200, 500, 800 or whatever) pops into your account every time one hits then you’ll be laughing all your way to the famous cliche.

Some people here think the simple way is the best – back everything at 16/1 or greater (ISP) on Betfair. My method is the same as with my NHS bets, 16/1 = 24/1 (25) on Bf (half as much again as isp)
but I ask for DOUBLE, 32, if unmatched take Bsp at the off. 20/1 (40), 25/1 (50), 33/1 (70), 40/1 and up is where the much bigger exchange prices begin.
Also, I’ve noticed that handicaps often have a VERY short-priced favourite and for me around 5/4 and less should warn you off backing the big outsiders in their races.
20 runners plus often have up to 15 or 16 outsiders. The average odds in picking one anything from 20 is, statistically and obviously 19/1; therefore outsiders would be priced at greater than the number of runners, in this case 20/1 (returns 21 units), so if you’re going to back in these races you need a price or prices of {Number of runners +1 or more} to 1. Or, like me, don’t invest in them at all!

It’s almost swim time so I’ll be off now. I expect lots of comments/questions tomorrow; meanwhile, have fun! 😀

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