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  • #2801726
    TonyMac11
    Participant

    Any thoughts on the remaining races on day four?

    14:10 Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle 2m 1f
    2020 Winner: CH’TIBELLO (12/1)
    Trainer – Dan Skelton
    Jockey – Harry Skelton

    Selection of Andy Newton Trends

    Positives…
    · The Irish have won 8 of the last 13 runnings
    · 4 of the last 12 winners ran in that season’s Coral.ie Hurdle (Leopardsotwn)
    · 13 of the last 14 winners were rated in the 130’s

    Negatives…
    · Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
    · Since 1960 only 5 winners carried more than 11st 2lb

    Betting (14th February 2020)
    Darver Star 10/1
    Front View 12/1
    Janidil 14/1
    Pic DOrhy 14/1
    Black Tears 16/1
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    16:10 St James’ Place Foxhunter Chase 3m 2½f
    2019 Winner: HAZEL HILL (7/2 fav)
    Trainer – Philip Rowley
    Jockey – Mr Alex Edwards

    Selection of Andy Newton Trends

    Positives…
    · 25 of the last 29 winners were aged under 11 years-old
    · 25 of the last 34 won last time out
    · 8 of the last 11 winners came from the first 4 in the betting

    Negatives…
    · Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
    · Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules

    Betting (14th February 2020)
    Hazel Hill 11/2
    Minella Rocco 6/1
    Billaway 8/1
    Caid du Berlais 12/1
    Wishing And Hoping 12/1
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    16:50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase 2m ½f
    2019 Winner: CROCO BAY (66/1)
    Trainer – Ben Case
    Jockey – Kielan Woods

    Selection of Andy Newton Trends

    Positives…
    · 16 of the last 20 winners carried 11st or less
    · 14 of the last 16 winners had run at the Festival before
    · 8 of the last 16 winners ran in the previous renewal

    Negatives…
    · Horses aged 10+ are just 2 win from the last 24 runnings
    · Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just 7 winners since 1990

    Betting (14th February 2020)
    Lisp 12/1
    Dynamite Dollars 14/1
    Eclair De Beaufeu 16/1
    Grand Sancy 16/1
    Greaneteen 16/1
    .
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    17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle 2m 4½f
    2019 Winner: EARLY DOORS (5/1)
    Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
    Jockey – Jonjo O’Neill

    Selection of Andy Newton Trends

    Positives…
    · 10 of the last 11 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
    · 31 of the 33 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
    · 9 of the 11 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out

    Negatives…
    · Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 19, inc 3 favs)
    · Just 1 winning fav in the 11-year history (7/10 returned in double-figures)

    Betting (14th February 2020)
    Ilikedwayurthinkin 6/1
    Chantry House 8/1
    Column Of Fire 10/1
    Blackbow 12/1
    Janidil 12/1

    #2801841
    TonyMac11
    Participant

    “I suppose Theinval and Whatswrongwithyou will go for the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase. They are solid handicap chasers but somewhat exposed.”
    Nicky Henderson

    #2802002
    TonyMac11
    Participant

    PRICE UPDATE (MONDAY 24th FEBRUARY)

    14:10 Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle 2m 1f

    Ciel De Neige 10
    Chitbello 14
    Aramon 20
    Eglantine Du Seuil 20
    Front View 20
    Not So Sleepy 20

    16:10 St James’ Place Foxhunter Chase 3m 2½f

    Hazel Hill 5
    Minella Rocco 6
    Billaway 8
    Bob And Co 11
    Caid du Berlais 12
    Shantou Flyer 12

    16:50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase 2m ½f

    Greaneteen 10
    Lisp 10
    Chosen Mate 14
    Brelan DAs 16
    Eclair De Beaufeu 16
    Lady Buttons 16

    17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle 2m 4½f

    Ilikedwayurthinkin 8
    Column Of Fire 9
    Five O Clock 14

    16/1 BAR

    #2802052
    TonyMac11
    Participant

    Pileon has only had three runs over hurdles and won the last two very easily, albeit in extremely moderate affairs. His first run was maybe his best when he was fourth here in a good novices’ hurdle in the autumn. He will run in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle I would imagine.

    Phillip Hobbs

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